Braves vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 9/17/23

Miami Marlins (77-72) vs Atlanta Braves (96-52)

Game Info: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Jesus Luzardo (9-9) (3.82) vs Charlie Morton (14-11) (3.42)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins +120 / Atlanta Braves -142 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Braves will play the Miami Marlins in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Miami has won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-6 and 11-5. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 96-52 this season and they have won six of their last ten games. Atlanta has struggled with Miami so far in this series, but they took three out of four games against Philadelphia in their last series. The Braves have scored 5+ runs in 10 of their last 12 games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average this year. The Braves offense has scored 863 runs with a .275 batting average and a .343 on base percentage. Matt Olson is batting .281 with 52 home runs and 129 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Charlie Morton, who is 14-11 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 157.2 innings pitched this season. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 77-72 this year and they have won three of their last four games. Miami hasn’t played great baseball over the last 10 games, but they are staying in the NL Wild Card race. The Marlins are currently a half game out of the last NL Wild Card spot, but there are multiple teams fighting for the last two spots. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 613 runs with a .258 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Luis Arraez is batting .351 with 10 home runs and 67 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who is 9-9 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 160.1 innings pitched this year.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have won each of their last nine Sunday games at LoanDepot Park.
  • The home team has covered the run line in each of the last five games between the Braves and Marlins.
  • The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs.
  • The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last five day games against National League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won each of the Braves' last three games at LoanDepot Park.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against NL East opponents.
  • The Braves have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four Sunday games as road favorites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four Sunday games as road favorites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Luis Arraez has hit at least one home run in three of the Marlins' last four games as underdogs.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six home appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.
  • Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances in day games.
  • Jesus Luzardo has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins' last eight day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one total base in each of the Marlins' last eight day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Luis Arraez ranks 9th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.392) this season.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Michael Harris has hit a home run in each of his last three road appearances against the Marlins.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five road appearances against the Marlins.
  • Ozzie Albies has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances at LoanDepot Park.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his last nine appearances.
  • Charlie Morton has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
  • Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (66) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins rank 26th in the league for runs scored this season (613).
  • The Miami Marlins rank T26th in the league for steals this season (77).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (287).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for RBI's this season (835).

Pick

The Braves are one of the best teams in the MLB, but they have had some issues with Miami so far in this series. Miami has scored 20 runs in the first two games and they are 42-32 at home. The Marlins will turn to Jesus Luzardo in this game, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, but did allow six earned runs last time out against the Brewers. The Braves will start Charlie Morton, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. I am rolling with the Braves to get back on track here, as Morton has been very good over the last few weeks. 

David’s Pick Braves ML

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