Reds vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 9/16/23

New York Mets (68-79) vs Cincinnati Reds (77-72)

Game Info: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Tylor Megill (8-7) (5.03) vs Andrew Abbott (8-5) (3.64)

Betting Odds: New York Mets -102 / Cincinnati Reds -118 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Cincinnati Reds will play the New York Mets in Game 2 of their series on Saturday night at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Cincinnati won the first game in this series by a score of 5-3 on Friday night and they are tied for the last Wild Card spot in the NL. 

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 77-72 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Prior to this series, Cincinnati won two out of three games on the road against Detroit. The Reds have scored 4+ runs in nine of their last eleven games. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average this season. The Reds offense has scored 703 runs with a .247 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Spencer Steer is batting .265 with 22 home runs and 81 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 8-5 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 99 innings pitched this year. 

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 68-79 this season and they have won three of their last four games. New York came into this series with some momentum, after winning three out of four games against Arizona. The Mets have scored 28 runs in their last four games and they are 38-35 at home this season. The New York pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .248 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 649 runs with a .238 batting average and a .318 on base percentage this year. Pete Alonso is batting .226 with 45 home runs and 112 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 8-7 with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP over 107.1 innings pitched this season. 

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have won four of their last five games as home underdogs.
  • The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home underdogs against the Reds.
  • The Mets have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five Saturday home games.
  • The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Saturday home games.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against the Mets following a win.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Saturday road games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three road games against National League opponents.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six Saturday night games.
  • The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Pete Alonso ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.535) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The New York Mets rank 26th in the league for walks allowed this season (549).
  • The New York Mets rank 25th in the league for batting average this season (.238).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1383).
  • The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (206).

Pick

The Reds were able to get a huge win in the NL Wild Card race last night, but their pitching staff has been hit or miss. New York has struggled all season, but they are over .500 at home and have played better in the last couple of weeks. New York is starting Tylor Megill, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Cincinnati is starting Andrew Abbott, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow six earned runs to the Cardinals last time out. I think we are going to see a lower scoring game and I like the under here.

David’s Pick Under 8

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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