Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction - MLB Picks 9/15/23

Toronto Blue Jays (80-67) vs Boston Red Sox (74-73)

Game Info: Friday, September 15, 2023 at 7:07 pm (Rogers Centre)

Jose Berrios (10-10) (3.63) vs Brayan Bello (12-8) (3.68)

Betting Odds: Toronto Blue Jays -135 / Boston Red Sox +114 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Boston Red Sox will play the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. The Blue Jays are coming off of a very disappointing series against Texas, while Boston also lost their last series to the Yankees. 

Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 74-73 this season and they have lost seven of their last nine games. Boston is coming off of a series loss to the Yankees, where they lost three out of four games. The Red Sox have really struggled over the last ten days and they are now tied with the Yankees for last in the AL East. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.59 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .260 opponent batting average this year. The Red Sox offense has scored 731 runs with a .263 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .276 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI’s for the Red Sox. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 12-8 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 142 innings pitched this season.

Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 80-67 this year and they have lost four games in a row. Toronto is coming off of a series loss to the Rangers, where they lost all four games at home. The Blue Jays were in a Wild Card spot prior to that series with Texas, but now they are 1.5 games behind Seattle for the last spot. The Toronto pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays offense has scored 669 runs with a .258 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .263 with 22 home runs and 86 RBI’s for the Blue Jays. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Jose Berrios, who is 10-10 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 171 innings pitched this year. 

Toronto Blue Jays Team Facts

  • The Blue Jays have lost 12 of their last 13 games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
  • The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Red Sox at Rogers Centre following a loss.
  • The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Blue Jays have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

  • The Red Sox have won each of their last six Friday games as road underdogs.
  • The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last six night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last three games against American League opponents.
  • The Red Sox have led after 7 innings in each of their last six Friday night games as road underdogs.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

  • George Springer has hit a home run in four of the Blue Jays' last nine games against the Red Sox at Rogers Centre.
  • Cavan Biggio has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Jose Berrios has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against AL opponents.
  • George Springer has scored at least one run in each of the Blue Jays' last five games against the Red Sox.
  • Cavan Biggio has recorded two or more total bases in six of his last seven home appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Whit Merrifield has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 Friday appearances against teams that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

  • Luis Urias has hit a home run in three of his five previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents.
  • Justin Turner has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox's last four games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
  • Masataka Yoshida has recorded two or more total bases in each of his eight previous appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.
  • Alex Verdugo has scored a run in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.
  • Justin Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Blue Jays.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Toronto Blue Jays are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays rank 5th in the league for hits this season (1299).
  • The Boston Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.263).
  • The Boston Red Sox rank 26th in the league for hits allowed this season (1314).

Pick

The Blue Jays are coming off of the worst possible outcome with their series against Texas, but they need to bounce back with a win here. The Red Sox limp into this game and have struggled recently, but they are over .500 on the road this season. Toronto is 38-34 at home and they will have Jose Berrios on the mound, who has allowed two earned runs in each of his last two starts. Boston is starting Brayan Bello, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. The Blue Jays come into this game desperately needing a win and I think they are going to get it against a Boston team that is not playing very well right now. Take the Jays here. 

David’s Pick Blue Jays ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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