Braves vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 9/15/23

Miami Marlins (75-72) vs Atlanta Braves (96-50)

Game Info: Friday, September 15, 2023 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Johnny Cueto (1-4) (6.15) vs Bryce Elder (12-4) (3.38)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins +164 / Atlanta Braves -198 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Braves will play the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. The Marlins lost their last series against Milwaukee and they are currently a half game out of the last NL Wild Card spot, while Atlanta continues to be one of the best teams in the MLB. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 96-50 this season and they have won six of their last eight games. Atlanta is coming off of a series win against the Phillies, where they won three out of four games. The Braves have scored 5+ runs in six of their last eight games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this year. The Braves offense has scored 852 runs with a .275 batting average and a .343 on base percentage. Matt Olson is batting .279 with 51 home runs and 128 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Bryce Elder, who is 12-4 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 162.1 innings pitched this season.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 75-72 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Miami is coming off of a series loss against the Brewers, where they lost three out of four games. The Marlins have scored 2 runs or fewer in four consecutive games. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 593 runs with a .256 batting average and a .311 on base percentage this season. Luis Arraez is batting .349 with seven home runs and 64 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Johnny Cueto, who is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 41 innings pitched this year.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last seven night games against the Braves at LoanDepot Park following a loss.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Braves following a loss.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against NL East opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last five home games against National League opponents.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won each of their last 11 Friday games.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Friday games as favorites.
  • The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games at LoanDepot Park.
  • The Braves have led after 7 innings in each of their last 10 Friday night games.
  • The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 Friday night games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in each of the Marlins' last two games as home underdogs against the Braves.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five home appearances against the Braves.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs against the Braves.
  • Jesus Sanchez has scored at least one run in each of his last three home appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.
  • Johnny Cueto has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Jazz Chisholm has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins' last seven games as underdogs against the Braves.
  • Luis Arraez ranks 9th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.390) this season.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Matt Olson has hit at least one home run in six of the Braves' last eight night games.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four road appearances against the Marlins.
  • Ozzie Albies has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves' last six games against the Marlins.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of the Braves' last 10 night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (66) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins rank 27th in the league for RBI's this season (564).
  • The Miami Marlins rank 27th in the league for steals this season (73).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (282).
  • The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for RBI's this season (824).

Pick

The Marlins offense has been very inconsistent this season and they are really struggling right now, which is not a great sign coming into a series against the best team in baseball. Atlanta is 49-25 on the road and they have a massive 17 game lead in the NL East. The Braves are starting Bryce Elder, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Marlins need a big win in this game, but they are sending out Johnny Cueto, who has allowed 12 earned runs over his last 14 innings of work. Take the Braves -1.5 in this matchup. 

David’s Pick Braves -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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