Nationals vs Pirates Prediction - MLB Picks 9/14/23

Pittsburgh Pirates (67-78) vs Washington Nationals (65-80)

Game Info: Thursday, September 14, 2023 at 12:35 pm (PNC Park)

Mitch Keller (11-9) (4.23) vs Josiah Gray (7-11) (4.13)

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates -150 / Washington Nationals +138 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates face off on Thursday in an MLB showdown at PNC Park. The Pirates have won two of the three games played between the two teams this series. 

Nationals Need Gray to be Good

On the mound for the Nationals will be Josiah Gray who sits with a 7-11 record and an ERA of 4.13. In his last start against the Miami Marlins he went four innings giving up four hits and three runs. Two starts ago against the Blue Jays he went two innings giving up four hits and four runs. Gray needs to be better here. The Nationals are averaging 4.31 runs while their pitching is giving up 5.2 runs per game. The offense is ranked 21st in the league while the pitching is ranked 27th. 

Nationals Betting Trends

  • The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
  • The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Pirates following a road loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last four day games against National League opponents.

Pirates Offense has been Inconsistent

Especially coming into this game the Pirates offense has been inconsistent, and it seems the last week they are either going to score six or seven runs or they are going to score only one or two. In this game it needs to be a game where the offense finds success. The Pirates are averaging 4.19 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.81 runs per game. The offense is ranked 24th in the league while the pitching is ranked 21st. On the mound for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller who sits with an 11-9 record and an ERA of 4.23. In his last start against the Braves he went five innings giving up 12 hits and eight runs.

Pirates Betting Trends

  • The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine day games following a win.
  • The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight Thursday day home games against National League opponents.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 11 day games at PNC Park against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three day games between the Nationals and Pirates at PNC Park.

Nationals vs Pirates Facts

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 4th in the league for triples this season (28).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 27th in the league for batting average this season (.237).
  • The Washington Nationals ranks 29th in the league for home runs this season (135).
  • The Washington Nationals ranks 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (1099).

Shane’s Free Pick

Both offenses are going to have no issue running up the score here. Gray is coming off a bad start and Keller really struggled in his last start giving up eight runs. Both off these offenses are going to run up the score against Gray and Keller and that is going to be the difference here as this game is going to be higher scoring. I expect there will be 11 or 12 runs scored here and the over is going to cash. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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