Marlins vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 9/14/23

Milwaukee Brewers (81-64) vs Miami Marlins (75-71)

Game Info: Thursday, September 14, 2023 at 2:10 pm (American Family Field)

Adrian Houser (5-4) (4.58) vs Eury Perez (5-4) (2.90)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -105 / Miami Marlins -112 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Marlins will play the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 4 of their series on Thursday afternoon at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Milwaukee won the first two games in this series by scores of 12-0 and 3-1, but Miami answered with a 2-0 win on Wednesday night. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 75-71 this season and they have lost four of their last seven games. Prior to this series, Miami won two out of three games against the Phillies. The Marlins are fighting in the NL Wild Card race, but they are a half game out of the last Wild Card spot. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this season. The Marlins offense has scored 591 runs with a .257 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Luis Arraez is batting .349 with seven home runs and 64 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Eury Perez, who is 5-4 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 83.2 innings pitched this year. 

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 81-64 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Milwaukee has allowed two runs or fewer in five of their last six games. The Brewers are currently leading the NL Central by four games over the Cubs. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .227 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 646 runs with a .238 batting average and a .317 on base percentage this year. Christian Yelich is batting .274 with 17 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Adrian Houser, who is 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 90.1 innings pitched this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have won each of their last 11 home games against National League opponents following a loss.
  • The Brewers have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
  • The Brewers have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The Brewers have led after 7 innings in four of their last five games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a road win.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five Thursday games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last four games as road favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Luis Arraez ranks 9th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.391) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 3rd in the league for walks this season (526).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (598).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 27th in the league for RBI's this season (562).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 27th in the league for steals this season (72).

Pick

The Marlins were able to pick up a big win on Wednesday night and they will look to get the series split in this game, while the Brewers will look to extend their lead in the NL Central. There are currently four teams within a half game of each other battling for the last NL Wild Card spot, so every game is important. The Marlins are starting Eury Perez, who has allowed five earned runs in his last 21.2 innings of work. The Brewers are starting Adrian Houser, who has allowed four earned runs in two of his last four starts, but is coming off of the IL. I am not a fan of Adrian Houser, so I am going to take the Marlins in this one. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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