Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 9/14/23

New York Mets (67-78) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (76-71)

Game Info: Thursday, September 14, 2023 at 4:10 pm (Citi Field)

Kodai Senga (10-7) (3.07) vs Merrill Kelly (11-6) (3.16)

Betting Odds: New York Mets -120 / Arizona Diamondbacks +100 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arizona Diamondbacks will play the New York Mets in Game 4 of their series on Thursday afternoon at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Arizona won the first game in this series by a score of 4-3, but the Mets have won Games 2 and 3 by scores of 7-4 and 7-1. Can New York get the series win here, or will the Diamondbacks earn a series split? 

Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 76-71 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Prior to this series, Arizona won three out of four against the Cubs and two out of three against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have played decently well in their last eight games, going 5-3. The Arizona pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average this year. The Diamondbacks offense has scored 678 runs with a .252 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Christian Walker is batting .262 with 30 home runs and 91 RBI’s for the Diamondbacks. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who is 11-6 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 154 innings pitched this season.

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 67-78 this season and they have won three of their last four games. New York came into this series after losing two out of three games to the Twins on the road. The Mets have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last seven games. The New York pitching staff has a 4.39 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .249 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 635 runs with a .238 batting average and a .318 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso is batting .226 with 44 home runs and 108 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Kodai Senga, who is 10-7 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 149.1 innings pitched this year.

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against NL West opponents following a home win.
  • The Mets have covered the run line nine of their last 10 home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Mets have led after 7 innings in each of their last four games at Citi Field against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last five games as favorites against NL West opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Facts

  • The Diamondbacks have won each of their last three games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last five games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents.
  • The Diamondbacks have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Kodai Senga ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (3.07) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

  • Merrill Kelly ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (3.16) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The New York Mets ranks 26th in the league for walks allowed this season (545).
  • The New York Mets ranks 25th in the league for batting average this season (.238).
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1140).
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks ranks 22nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.253).

Pick

The Diamondbacks could really use a win in this game, as they are currently tied for the last NL Wild Card spot. Arizona is 38-36 on the road, but New York is 37-34 at home and plays much better at Citi Field than they do on the road. New York is starting Kodai Senga, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Arizona is starting Merrill Kelly, who has allowed two earned runs in his last 12.2 innings of work. Both of these pitchers have been solid in their last couple of starts, but I am going to give the edge to the Mets here. New York is a different team at home and I think they earn the series win. 

David’s Pick Mets ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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