Marlins vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 9/12/23

Milwaukee Brewers (80-63) vs Miami Marlins (74-70)

Game Info: Tuesday, September 12, 2023 at 7:40 pm (American Family Field)

Freddy Peralta (11-8) (3.89) vs JT Chargois (1-0) (3.63)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -155 / Miami Marlins +136 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Marlins will play the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 2 of their series on Tuesday night at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Brewers won the first game in this series by a score of 12-0 and they are leading the NL Central by a few games over the Cubs. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 74-70 this season and they have won eight of their last eleven games. Prior to losing the first game in this series, Miami won two out of three games against the Phillies and the Dodgers. The Marlins have allowed 8+ runs in three of their last five games. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this season. The Marlins offense has scored 588 runs with a .258 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Luis Arraez is batting .349 with six home runs and 63 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is JT Chargois, who is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 34.2 innings pitched this year.

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 80-63 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Milwaukee came into this series after winning two out of three games on the road against the Yankees. The Brewers have scored 8+ runs in three of their last four games. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .228 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 643 runs with a .238 batting average and a .317 on base percentage this year. William Contreras is batting .283 with 15 home runs and 69 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is 11-8 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 150.1 innings pitched this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against the Marlins following a win.
  • The Brewers have covered the run line each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last five games at American Family Field.
  • The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last five home night games.
  • The Brewers have led after 7 innings in each of their last five night games against the Marlins at American Family Field.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have won each of their last three games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five night games at American Family Field against National League opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Luis Arraez ranks 9th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.391) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 3rd in the league for walks this season (517).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.381).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts this season (1330).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 26th in the league for steals this season (72).

Pick

The Brewers dominated the first game in this series and they continue to hold a steady lead in the NL Central race. The Marlins are currently one game out of the last NL Wild Card spot, so each game is super important for them. Milwaukee has been one of the better home teams this season, going 41-28 at home. The Brewers are starting Freddy Peralta, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. The Marlins are starting JT Chargois, who will operate as an opener. Edward Cabrera is expected to be the primary pitcher. The Brewers have been solid at home, but I am going to take the Marlins in this game. Cabrera was very good against the Dodgers in his last outing and I think we see another solid performance from him here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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