Braves vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 9/11/23

Philadelphia Phillies (78-64) vs Atlanta Braves (93-49)

Game Info: Monday, September 11, 2023 at 1:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Taijuan Walker/Michael Lorenzen vs Charlie Morton/Kyle Wright

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies +120 / Atlanta Braves -130 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Braves will play the Philadelphia Phillies in a doubleheader on Monday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies come into today in the first NL Wild Card spot, while Atlanta leads the NL East by 15 games. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 93-49 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Atlanta is coming off of a series win against the Pirates, where they won two out of three games. The Braves have scored 5+ runs in five of their last six games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this year. The Braves offense has scored 826 runs with a .276 batting average and a .344 on base percentage. Matt Olson is batting .277 with 48 home runs and 121 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta in Game 1 is Charlie Morton, who is 14-11 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 151.2 innings pitched this season. The projected starting pitcher for Game 2 is Kyle Wright, who is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP over 18.2 innings pitched. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 78-64 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series loss to Miami, where they lost two out of three games. The Phillies have scored 5+ runs in eight of their last twelve games. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 692 runs with a .259 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Bryce Harper is batting .294 with 15 home runs and 58 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Game 1 for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is 15-5 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 147.1 innings pitched this year. The projected starting pitcher for Game 2 is Michael Lorenzen, who is 3-2 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 38 innings pitched.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won each of their last six Monday games as underdogs against the Braves.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs on the first leg of a doubleheader.
  • The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Phillies have won the first inning in each of their last three day games.
  • The Phillies have led after 3 innings in six of their last nine games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won 12 of their last 13 games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against NL East opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last three games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Trea Turner has hit at least one home run in five of the Phillies' last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in 11 of his last 12 appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last eight home games.
  • Taijuan Walker has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last seven Monday appearances.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one total base in each of the Phillies' last 12 games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last 12 games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Taijuan Walker ranks T3rd in the league for Wins (15) this season.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Marcell Ozuna has hit at least one home run in each of the Braves' last three games against NL East opponents.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Braves' last nine games as favorites.
  • Matt Olson has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves' last seven games.
  • Charlie Morton has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
  • Austin Riley has scored at least one run in each of the Braves' last eight road games against NL East opponents.
  • Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last nine road games against NL East opponents.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (64) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 6th in the league for hits this season (1261).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 6th in the league for doubles this season (265).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for home runs this season (273).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for RBI's this season (799).

Pick

Atlanta has completely ran away with the NL East and they are looking towards the playoffs, while Philadelphia is currently four games up in the first NL Wild Card spot. Atlanta is the highest scoring team in the MLB and they have the fifth best team ERA. In Game 1, I have to give the edge to Charlie Morton and the Braves. Morton has pitched very well in his last five starts. In Game 2, I am going to take the Phillies with Lorenzen on the mound. Lorenzen has had a rough few starts for Philadelphia, but he has still had a very good year. 

David’s Pick Game 1: Braves ML Game 2: Phillies ML

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