Pirates vs Braves Prediction - MLB Picks 9/10/23

Atlanta Braves (92-49) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (66-76)

Game Info: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:35 pm (Truist Park)

Allan Winans (1-1) (5.17) vs Luis Ortiz (4-4) (4.90)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves -298 / Pittsburgh Pirates +240 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Pittsburgh Pirates will play the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. The Braves won the first game in this series by a score of 8-2, while Pittsburgh won the second game by a score of 8-4 on Saturday. 

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 66-76 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games. The Pirates have played pretty well over the last couple of weeks, going 8-3 in their last 11 games. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average this year. The Pirates offense has scored 599 runs with a .236 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Jack Suwinski is batting .210 with 24 home runs and 62 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Luis Ortiz, who is 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP over 68 innings pitched this season.

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 92-49 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Prior to this series, Atlanta lost two out of three games at home against the Cardinals. The Braves have allowed 8+ runs in three of their last five games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 821 runs with a .276 batting average and a .345 on base percentage this season. Ronald Acuna is batting .336 with 35 home runs and 91 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Allan Winans, who is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 15.2 innings pitched this year. 

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won 19 of their last 21 games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against the Pirates.
  • The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Braves have trailed after 7 innings in eight of their last 11 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The Pirates have lost 11 of their last 12 games at Truist Park against teams that held a winning record.
  • The favorites have covered the run line in eight of the Pirates' last nine games at Truist Park.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last six road games against National League opponents.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five day games at Truist Park against National League opponents.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven day games against National League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Matt Olson has hit at least one home run in five of the Braves' last six home games against NL Central opponents.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Braves' last eight games against NL Central opponents.
  • Matt Olson has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves' last six games against NL Central opponents.
  • Matt Olson has scored at least one run in each of the Braves' last eight games against NL Central opponents at Truist Park.
  • Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 19 games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (64) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates' last four games against the Braves at Truist Park.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Pirates' last five games as underdogs against the Braves.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Braves.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has scored at least one run in eight of the Pirates' last nine games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates' last 11 road games against the Braves.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for home runs this season (273).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for RBI's this season (794).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T4th in the league for triples this season (27).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 27th in the league for batting average this season (.236).

Pick

The Braves come into this game as one of the best teams in the MLB and they will be looking for another series win. The Pirates are fourth in the NL Central and only 32-39 on the road this year, but they have been very competitive in the last few weeks. The Pirates are starting Luis Ortiz, who has allowed 2, 1, 5, 6, and 4 earned runs in his last five outings. The Braves are starting Allan Winans, who has allowed nine earned runs over 15.2 innings this year. I don’t love either of these starting pitchers and I think both teams will score some runs, so I am taking the over in this one. 

David’s Pick Over 10

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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