Mariners vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 9/10/23

Tampa Bay Rays (87-56) vs Seattle Mariners (79-63)

Game Info: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:10 pm (Tropicana Field)

Zach Eflin (13-8) (3.47) vs Bryce Miller (8-4) (3.83)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -135 / Seattle Mariners +114 --- Over/Under: 7 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Seattle Mariners will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Seattle won Game 1 in this series by a score of 1-0, but Tampa Bay won Games 2 and 3 by scores of 7-4 and 7-5.

Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 79-63 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Prior to this series, Seattle lost two out of three games to the Reds and the Mets. The Mariners are fighting for the AL West, but they are a couple of games behind the Astros for first. The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average this year. The Mariners offense has scored 679 runs with a .244 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Julio Rodriguez is batting .282 with 29 home runs and 95 RBI’s for the Mariners. The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Bryce Miller, who is 8-4 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 112.2 innings pitched this season.

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 87-56 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Tampa Bay remains a few games behind the Orioles in the AL East, but they are playing well right now. The Rays have scored 6+ runs in five of their last eight games. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 760 runs with a .258 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this season. Yandy Diaz is batting .318 with 19 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zach Eflin, who is 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 155.2 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won four of their last five games.
  • The Rays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Mariners.
  • The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against American League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last three day games against AL West opponents.

Seattle Mariners Team Facts

  • The Mariners have won six of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games.
  • The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Mariners have won the first inning in each of their last three games as underdogs.
  • The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of the Rays' last three games as home favorites.
  • Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rays' last five games as home favorites.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Rays' last eight Sunday day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yandy Diaz has scored a run in eight of his last nine appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Zach Eflin has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Rays as home favorites against AL opponents.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Sunday appearances with the Rays as favorites.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.318) this season.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

  • Julio Rodriguez has hit a home run in five of his last six appearances against AL opponents.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances in day games.
  • Julio Rodriguez has scored at least one run in each of the Mariners' last five games as underdogs.
  • Teoscar Hernandez has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight road appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners' last 11 day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 2nd in the league for steals this season (152).
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
  • The Seattle Mariners ranks 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.74).
  • The Seattle Mariners ranks 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (578).

Pick

The Rays come into this game looking for the series win, while Seattle is trying to hang onto a spot in the AL Wild Card race. The Mariners are currently tied for the second Wild Card spot, but Texas is only 1.5 games behind. Seattle is starting Bryce Miller, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The Rays are starting Zach Eflin, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four straight outings. I think we see a good pitching duel here and I like the under. 

David’s Pick Under 7

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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