Padres vs Astros Prediction - MLB Picks 9/9/23

Houston Astros (80-62) vs San Diego Padres (67-75)

Game Info: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Minute Maid Park)

Cristian Javier (9-3) (4.65) vs Seth Lugo (6-6) (3.49)

Betting Odds: Houston Astros -130 / San Diego Padres +110 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The San Diego Padres will play the Houston Astros in Game 2 of their series on Saturday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Houston has played very well down the stretch and they are currently leading the AL West standings, while San Diego is trying to claw their way back into the NL Wild Card race, but is probably too far out. San Diego won the first game in this series by a score of 11-2 on Friday. 

Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres are 67-75 this season and they have won five of their last seven games. San Diego came into this series after losing two out of three games to Philadelphia at home. The Padres have been one of the most disappointing teams in the MLB this year, despite having one of the best team ERA’s in baseball. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average this year. The Padres offense has scored 648 runs with a .240 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Juan Soto is batting .258 with 28 home runs and 85 RBI’s for the Padres. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Seth Lugo, who is 6-6 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 121.1 innings pitched this season.

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros are 80-62 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Prior to getting blown out in Game 1, Houston won all three games in their series with Texas on the road. The Astros only scored two runs on Friday, but they were able to score 12+ runs in each game against Texas. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 731 runs with a .260 batting average and a .332 on base percentage this season. Alex Bregman is batting .272 with 22 home runs and 92 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Cristian Javier, who is 9-3 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 137.1 innings pitched this year. 

Houston Astros Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won each of the Astros' last seven games.
  • The road team has covered the run line in 14 of the Astros' last 15 games.
  • The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last three games.
  • The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Astros have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.

San Diego Padres Team Facts

  • The Padres have lost each of their last five games against AL West opponents following a road win.
  • The Padres have covered the run line each of their last four night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against the Astros.
  • The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games.
  • The Padres have led after 7 innings in each of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in two of the Astros' last three games against NL opponents.
  • Jose Abreu has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last 10 appearances.
  • Michael Brantley has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Jeremy Pena has scored at least one run in each of the Astros' last four games.
  • Michael Brantley has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

  • Xander Bogaerts has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Astros.
  • Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres' last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Seth Lugo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances in night games.
  • Juan Soto has scored at least one run in each of the Padres' last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Xander Bogaerts has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Padres' last six games.
  • Manny Machado has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres' last 10 road games.
  • Ha-Seong Kim ranks 8th in the league in Steals (34) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Houston Astros ranks 4th in the league for hits this season (1271).
  • The Houston Astros ranks 5th in the league for runs scored this season (731).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks T27th in the league for triples this season (11).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.79).

Pick

The Padres are trying to make a late push in the NL Wild Card race, but they are still seven games behind the Diamondbacks for the last Wild Card spot. Houston is currently leading the AL West standings, but Seattle is just a half game back. The Astros are 35-35 at home this year, but San Diego is only 28-39 on the road. Houston is starting Cristian Javier, who has allowed 3, 4, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last four starts. San Diego is starting Seth Lugo, who has allowed three earned runs in his last 24 innings of work. Houston may have been blown out on Friday, but they are still the much better team and we are getting them at a decent price. Take the Astros here. 

David’s Pick Astros ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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