Mets vs Twins Prediction - MLB Picks 9/9/23

Minnesota Twins (74-67) vs New York Mets (64-76)

Game Info: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 2:10 pm (Target Field)

Kenta Maeda (3-7) (4.73) vs David Peterson (3-7) (5.40)

Betting Odds: Minnesota Twins -148 / New York Mets +124 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New York Mets will play the Minnesota Twins in Game 2 of their series on Saturday afternoon at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins won the first game in this series by a score of 5-2 on Friday night and they continue to hold a solid lead in the AL Central. 

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 64-76 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Prior to this series, New York split a two game series with the Nationals. The Mets have had a rough season, but they have played decently well over their last seven games. The New York pitching staff has a 4.44 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .249 opponent batting average this season. The Mets offense has scored 612 runs with a .238 batting average and a .318 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .225 with 42 home runs and 102 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 88.1 innings pitched this year.

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 74-67 this season and they have won five of their last seven games. Minnesota came into this series after winning two out of three games over the Guardians. The Twins have scored 5+ runs in six of their last seven games. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Twins offense has scored 656 runs with a .242 batting average and a .322 on base percentage this year. Carlos Correa is batting .232 with 18 home runs and 63 RBI’s for the Twins. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Kenta Maeda, who is 3-7 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 83.2 innings pitched this season.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Mets and Twins.
  • The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a home win.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last three games as favorites against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have lost each of their last seven road games against AL Central opponents.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine road games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
  • The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road games against AL Central opponents.
  • The Mets have lost the first inning in each of their last three road games against AL Central opponents.
  • The Mets have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six road games against AL Central opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Jordan Luplow has hit a home run in four of his last five Saturday day appearances with his team as a favorite.
  • Kyle Farmer has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL East opponents.
  • Jorge Polanco has scored a run in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Kenta Maeda has recorded five or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 17 appearances with the Twins as home favorites.
  • Kyle Farmer has recorded two or more total bases in nine of his last 10 appearances against the Mets.
  • Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Pete Alonso has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets' last five day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL Central opponents.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last nine Saturday day appearances.
  • Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in five of the Mets' last six games.
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances at Target Field.
  • Pete Alonso ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.529) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Minnesota Twins ranks 4th in the league for walks this season (499).
  • The Minnesota Twins ranks 4th in the league for walks allowed this season (396).
  • The New York Mets ranks 26th in the league for walks allowed this season (522).
  • The New York Mets ranks 25th in the league for batting average this season (.238).

Pick

The Twins come into this game with a nice lead in the AL Central and they have pretty much locked that division up, while New York is trying to stay ahead of Washington for fourth in the NL East. The Twins have been hitting the ball very well recently and they will be facing David Peterson, who has allowed 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts. The Twins are starting Kenta Maeda, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. I don’t love the pitching matchup in this game and each team has been able to score runs recently. Take the over here. 

David’s Pick Over 8.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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