Brewers vs Pirates Prediction - MLB Picks 9/6/23

Pittsburgh Pirates (64-75) vs Milwaukee Brewers (77-61)

Game Info: Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 12:35 pm (PNC Park)

Colin Selby (2-0) (5.79) vs Freddy Peralta (11-8) (3.85)

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +124 / Milwaukee Brewers -135 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Milwaukee Brewers will play the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday afternoon at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Pirates won the first game in this series by a score of 4-2, while the Brewers answered with a 7-3 win on Tuesday night. Milwaukee continues to lead the NL Central by 2.5 games over the Cubs. 

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 77-61 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Prior to splitting the first two games in this series, Milwaukee won two out of three games against the Phillies at home. The Brewers got a great pitching performance from Woodruff last night, which was much needed after allowing 4+ runs in the previous four games. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .231 opponent batting average this season. The Brewers offense has scored 607 runs with a .236 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .209 with 22 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 145 innings pitched this year. 

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 64-75 this season and they have won six of their last eight games. Pittsburgh has been red hot recently, taking five out of six games against the Cardinals and Royals prior to this series. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.49 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .251 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 584 runs with a .236 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this year. Jack Suwinski is batting .205 with 23 home runs and 58 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Colin Selby, who is 2-0 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 14 innings pitched this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The Pirates have won each of their last three games as home underdogs against the Brewers following a loss.
  • The Pirates have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games at PNC Park following a loss.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 10 day games at PNC Park against National League opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have lost each of their last six Wednesday games as road favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last three games at PNC Park.
  • The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as road favorites.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Connor Joe has hit a home run in two of the Pirates' last three games as underdogs against the Brewers.
  • Connor Joe has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Pirates' last four games against NL Central opponents.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has scored at least one run in 10 of the Pirates' last 11 games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Jack Suwinski has recorded two or more total bases in five of his last six home appearances against the Brewers.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded a hit in each of the Pirates' last six games as underdogs.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

  • Christian Yelich has hit a home run in four of his last nine road appearances against NL Central opponents.
  • William Contreras has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
  • Christian Yelich has recorded two or more total bases in five of his last six appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
  • William Contreras has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Freddy Peralta has recorded eight or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Brewers as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Mark Canha has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers' last eight games against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 4th in the league for home runs allowed this season (148).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T5th in the league for triples this season (26).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for hits this season (1077).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.379).

Pick

Milwaukee comes into this game looking for the series win, as they continue to try and hold off the Cubs in the NL Central. Pittsburgh has played well recently, but the Brewers jumped on them quickly on Tuesday. Milwaukee is starting Freddy Peralta, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts. The Pirates are starting Colin Selby, who will work as an opener. Pittsburgh is expected to use Mitch Keller as the primary pitcher, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings. We have two pitchers that have been solid in recent starts, but I am going to give the edge to Milwaukee once again here. The Brewers lead the season series by a total of 8-4 and I like them to win by at least two runs once again today. 

David’s Pick Brewers -1.5

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