Phillies vs Padres Prediction - MLB Picks 9/5/23

San Diego Padres (65-73) vs Philadelphia Phillies (75-61)

Game Info: Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 9:40 pm (Petco Park)

() () vs Michael Lorenzen (8-8) (3.73)

Betting Odds: San Diego Padres -110 / Philadelphia Phillies +100 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres face off on Tuesday in an MLB showdown at Petco Park. On Monday it was the Phillies that were able to secure the 9-7 victory.

Phillies Offense Scored Early

On Monday the Phillies offense really looked good especially early putting up eight runs in the first three innings. Kyle Schwarber had another big game putting up two hits and driving in three runs. One of those hits was a home run. The Phillies are averaging 4.91 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.38 runs per game. The offense is ranked 9th while the pitching is ranked 16th. On the mound for the Phillies is Michael Lorenzen and he sits with an 8-8 record and an ERA of 3.73. 

Phillies Betting Preview

  • The underdogs have won four of the Phillies' last five games.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents following a win.
  • The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last four road games against NL West opponents.
  • The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against NL West opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last five games as favorites against NL West opponents.

Padres Need Avila to Lock Down

The Padres are going to send Pedro Avila to the mound and he sits with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 2.67. In his last start against the Giants he went three innings giving up six hits and six runs. The Padres are averaging 4.52 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.09 runs per game. The offense is ranked 16th while the pitching is ranked 4th. In the first game the pitching wasn’t good enough and that is going to need to change here. 

Padres Betting Preview

  • The Padres have won eight of their last nine night games at Petco Park following a home loss.
  • The Padres have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games at Petco Park following a home loss.
  • The Padres have led after 7 innings in three of their last four games as home underdogs.
  • The Padres have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home underdogs.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last four home games.

Phillies vs Padres Facts 

  • The San Diego Padres ranks T26th in the league for triples this season (11).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks 5th in the league for runs allowed this season (568).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks T5th in the league for triples this season (26).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 5th in the league for batting average this season (.260).

Shane’s Free Pick

There was no shortage of scoring in the first game and it’s going to be the case again here. Avila really struggled in his last start and he’s going to really struggle again here. The Phillies scored nine runs on Monday and they are going to have no issue running up the score again here. The Padres will also score enough against Lorenzen to push this game over the posted total. 

Shane’s Pick Over

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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