Mariners vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/5/23

Cincinnati Reds (72-68) vs Seattle Mariners (77-60)

Game Info: Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Connor Phillips (0-0) (0.00) vs Bryce Miller (8-4) (3.93)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds +130 / Seattle Mariners -155 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Seattle Mariners will play the Cincinnati Reds in Game 2 of their series on Tuesday night at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds won the first game in this series by a score of 6-3 on Monday afternoon, as they continue to battle in the NL Wild Card race. 

Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 77-60 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Seattle came into this series after losing two out of three games in their series with the Mets. The Mariners are currently tied for first in the AL West with Houston, while Texas is only one game back. The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average this year. The Mariners offense has scored 655 runs with a .244 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Julio Rodriguez is batting .284 with 25 home runs and 89 RBI’s for the Mariners. The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Bryce Miller, who is 8-4 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 107.2 innings pitched this season.

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 72-68 this year and they have won three of their last four games. The Reds came into this series after splitting a four game series with the Cubs and they continue to fight for a Wild Card spot. The Reds are currently tied with Arizona for the last NL Wild Card berth. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.70 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .257 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 661 runs with a .247 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Spencer Steer is batting .269 with 20 home runs and 76 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Connor Phillips, who is making his first appearance for the Reds this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have won each of their last nine games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a win.
  • The Reds have covered the run line each of their last nine games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven night games.
  • The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three night games.

Seattle Mariners Team Facts

  • The Mariners have lost four of their last five games as road favorites.
  • The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mariners' last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • Spencer Steer has hit a home run in each of the Reds' last two games as underdogs.
  • Spencer Steer has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Reds' last five games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in each of the Reds' last six games against AL West opponents.
  • Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
  • Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds' last six games against AL West opponents.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

  • J.P. Crawford has hit a home run in four of the Mariners' last five night games.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mariners' last four games against NL Central opponents.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances in night games.
  • Julio Rodriguez has scored at least one run in each of the Mariners' last six road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • J.P. Crawford has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • J.P. Crawford ranks 10th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.388) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (193).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 27th in the league for walks allowed this season (519).
  • The Seattle Mariners ranks 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1367).
  • The Seattle Mariners ranks 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (553).

Pick

The Reds have had a minor outbreak of covid going through their pitching staff, which has caused them to shuffle things around over the last few days. Both teams are fighting for postseason positioning, so this is a crucial game and series. Cincinnati is starting Connor Phillips, who has pitched well in the minors this year. Seattle is starting Bryce Miller, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts. The Reds won as a big underdog on Monday, but I don’t think they can make it two in a row. Miller has pitched very well for Seattle this season and I like the Mariners to win this by a couple of runs. 

David’s Pick Mariners -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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