Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 9/5/23

Miami Marlins (70-67) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (84-52)

Game Info: Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Jesus Luzardo (9-8) (3.62) vs Clayton Kershaw (12-4) (2.48)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins +124 / Los Angeles Dodgers -148 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Los Angeles Dodgers will play the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their series on Tuesday night at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. The Marlins are coming off of a huge series sweep over the weekend, while Los Angeles lost three out of four games at home. 

Dodgers Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 84-52 this season and they have won five of their last eight games. Los Angeles is coming off of a series loss to the Braves, where they lost three out of four games at home. The Dodgers did struggle against the Braves, but they had won seven of their previous eight games going into that series. The Los Angeles pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average this year. The Dodgers offense has scored 762 runs with a .256 batting average and a .341 on base percentage. Mookie Betts is batting .316 with 38 home runs and 99 RBI’s for the Dodgers. The projected starting pitcher for Los Angeles is Clayton Kershaw, who is 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 112.1 innings pitched this season.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 70-67 this season and they have won four games in a row. Miami is coming off of a series win against the Nationals, where they won all four games in the series. The Marlins offense was very poor over the last few weeks, but they scored 31 runs in the four games in Washington. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.13 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 559 runs with a .260 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Luis Arraez is batting .356 with six home runs and 61 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who is 9-8 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 149.1 innings pitched this year.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The road team has won each of the Marlins' last six games.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games at LoanDepot Park.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last four games.

Los Angeles Dodgers Team Facts

  • The Dodgers have won 15 of their last 16 games as favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Dodgers have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Dodgers have led after 7 innings in each of their last five Tuesday night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Dodgers' last three games against National League opponents.
  • The Dodgers have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jorge Soler has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Marlins against NL opponents.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins' last four games.
  • Jazz Chisholm has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins' last four games.
  • Jesus Luzardo has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances against NL West opponents.
  • Jorge Soler has recorded at least one total base in each of the Marlins' last nine home games against NL opponents.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Jorge Soler ranks T6th in the league in Home Runs (35) this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Player Prop Facts

  • Mookie Betts has hit at least one home run in three of the Dodgers' last four games against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park.
  • Max Muncy has recorded at least one RBI in 11 of his last 12 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Mookie Betts has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Dodgers' last six games as road favorites.
  • Mookie Betts has scored at least one run in each of the Dodgers' last six road games.
  • Clayton Kershaw has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 11 Tuesday night appearances against teams that held a winning record.
  • Freddie Freeman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 appearances against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park.
  • Mookie Betts ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.615) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins ranks 27th in the league for RBI's this season (530).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks T26th in the league for home runs this season (135).
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers ranks 2nd in the league for home runs this season (213).
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers ranks 2nd in the league for RBI's this season (738).

Pick

The Dodgers are coming off of a rare series loss at home, when the Braves went into Dodger Stadium and dominated. The Marlins finally got a series win, but they are still a half game out of the NL Wild Card race. Miami is starting Jesus Luzardo, who has allowed 0 earned runs in his last two starts (12 IP). LA is starting Clayton Kershaw, who has allowed one earned run in four straight starts. I think this is a tough spot for the Dodgers, who have to travel across the country after losing three of four at home. Luzardo has been solid and I am going to take the Marlins at home. 

David’s Pick Marlins ML

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