Twins vs Guardians Prediction - MLB Picks 9/4/23

Cleveland Guardians (66-71) vs Minnesota Twins (71-66)

Game Info: Monday, September 4, 2023 at 6:10 pm (Progressive Field)

Lucas Giolito (7-11) (4.45) vs Pablo Lopez (9-7) (3.72)

Betting Odds: Cleveland Guardians +120 / Minnesota Twins -130 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Minnesota Twins for game one of their divisional series this Sunday from Progressive Field.

Twins Preview & Projected Starter

Minnesota moved to 71-66 after taking two of three from Texas. The Twins nearly swept the Rangers before coming up short in game three, and they’ll look to boost their division lead this week in Cleveland. The Minnesota offense is scoring 3.48 runs per game, while batting .237, with a .315 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 3.58 ERA, with a 1.18 WHIP.

Pablo Lopez (9-7, 3.72 ERA, 196 Ks) will take the mound for Minnesota. The sixth-year pitcher took the loss at home last week to Cleveland, after allowing three runs in six innings. Lopez’s hot month of August ended with a defeat, but after posting a 4-1 record, he looks like he’s ready for a postseason run. Lopez has allowed two runs or less thru seven starts since the start of June.

Twins Player Trends & Props

• Jorge Polanco has recorded a hit in eight of the last ten games, and he’s posting splits of .255/11/38 through 62 games.

• Carlos Correa’s return to Texas went well, as he recorded six hits and produced a pair of runs thru three games, and he leads the Twins in hits (106) and RBI (58), with sixteen home runs.

• Max Kepler has totaled multiple bases in five of the last nine games, and he’s up to 21 homers and 51 RBI for the season.

• Donovan Solano homered in the game two win, and he leads the Twins in batting (.296).

Guardians Preview & Projected Starter

Cleveland moved to 66-71 after taking two of three from Tampa. The Guardians weren’t able to complete the sweep against the Rays, and they’ll look to get back into the win column on Monday. The Cleveland offense is scoring 3.98 runs per game, while batting .253, with a .316 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 3.83 ERA, with a 1.26 WHIP.

Lucas Giolito (7-11, 4.45 ERA, 165 Ks) will get the call for LAA. The eighth-year righty will make his first appearance for Cleveland here, as he’s spent time with dysfunction this season in Chicago and Anaheim. Giolito never really got going with the struggling Angels, but a return to the AL Central could see a return in form for the former Sox pitcher. The Santa Monica native posted a 1-5 record with LAA, but he went 6-6 with a 3.79 through the first portion of the season with Chicago.

Guardians Player Trends & Props

• Jose Ramirez has gone six games without a RBI, so he may be due soon, and he still leads Cleveland home runs (22), while batting .271 with 71 RBI.

• Steven Kwan has totaled multiple bases in five of the last seven games, and he leads the team in hits (147), while batting .272.

• Andrés Giménez has scored a run in four of the last five games, and he’s posting splits of .233/12/50

• Josh Naylor returned to the lineup on Sunday and plated a run to extend his team-lead to 80 RBI.

Corey’s Free Pick

This is a big series right here, as it could really factor into who wins the AL Central. Cleveland rests just five games back of Minnesota’s division lead, but with the visitors set to send their ace to the hill, I like their chances in game one. Pablo Lopez has been as advertised this season, and after falling to the Guardians last week despite pitching a quality start, he could come out even stronger here. The Twins are also hitting the ball well right now, so let’s back a strong two-way effort from them in game one of this divisional series.