Rockies vs Diamondbacks Prediction - MLB Picks 9/4/23

Arizona Diamondbacks (70-67) vs Colorado Rockies (50-86)

Game Info: Monday, September 4, 2023 at 4:10 pm (Chase Field)

Merrill Kelly (10-6) (3.31) vs Peter Lambert (3-5) (4.95)

Betting Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks -258 / Colorado Rockies +210 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Colorado Rockies will play the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 of their series on Monday afternoon at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. Arizona is coming off of a series loss to the Orioles, while the Rockies have lost four series in a row. The Diamondbacks will be looking for a huge series win, as they try to stay in that NL Wild Card race. 

Rockies Preview

The Colorado Rockies are 50-86 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. Colorado is coming off of a series loss to the Blue Jays, where they lost two out of three games. The Rockies have really struggled recently and they have lost four consecutive series to the Blue Jays, Braves, Orioles, and Rays. The Colorado pitching staff has a 5.61 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a .286 opponent batting average this year. The Rockies offense has scored 601 runs with a .249 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Ryan McMahon is batting .252 with 22 home runs and 69 RBI’s for the Rockies. The projected starting pitcher for Colorado is Peter Lambert, who is 3-5 with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 76.1 innings pitched this season.

Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 70-67 this season and they have lost six of their last eight games. Arizona is coming off of a series loss to Baltimore, where they lost two out of three games. The Diamondbacks are in the NL Wild Card race, but they need to get back on track in this series. The Arizona pitching staff has a 4.65 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Diamondbacks offense has scored 639 runs with a .253 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Corbin Carroll is batting .282 with 24 home runs and 66 RBI’s for the Diamondbacks. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who is 10-6 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 141.1 innings pitched this year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Facts

  • The Diamondbacks have won nine of their last 10 home games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last three day games against NL West opponents.
  • The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against National League opponents.
  • The Diamondbacks have led after 7 innings in each of their last eight Monday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Colorado Rockies Team Facts

  • The Rockies have lost 14 of their last 15 road games against NL West opponents.
  • The Rockies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents.
  • The Rockies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road games against National League opponents.
  • The Rockies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Monday day road games.
  • The Rockies have led after 7 innings in four of their last six games as road underdogs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

  • Christian Walker has hit at least one home run in four of the Diamondbacks' last five games against the Rockies.
  • Christian Walker has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Diamondbacks' last eight games as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Christian Walker has recorded four or more total bases in each of the Diamondbacks' last five games against the Rockies.
  • Christian Walker has scored a run in each of the Diamondbacks' last eight games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
  • Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
  • Merrill Kelly ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (3.31) this season.

Colorado Rockies Player Prop Facts

  • Ryan McMahon has hit a home run in three of the Rockies' last four Monday day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Elias Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Rockies' last six road games.
  • Ryan McMahon has scored a run in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
  • Ryan McMahon has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Rockies' last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Charlie Blackmon has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1070).
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks ranks 24th in the league for strikeouts this season (1133).
  • The Colorado Rockies ranks 30th in the league for hits allowed this season (1334).
  • The Colorado Rockies ranks 30th in the league for runs allowed this season (803).

Pick

The Diamondbacks have struggled recently and they are in need of a series win, but they do have the benefit of playing a poor Rockies team in this series. Arizona is currently tied for the last NL Wild Card spot and is playing a Rockies team that is only 21-48 on the road. Arizona is starting Merrill Kelly, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did get rocked by the Dodgers in his last outing. Colorado is starting Peter Lambert, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. The Diamondbacks are a huge favorite in this game and I am going to take them to win by at least two runs. 

David’s Pick Diamondbacks -1.5

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