Red Sox vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 9/4/23

Tampa Bay Rays (83-54) vs Boston Red Sox (71-66)

Game Info: Monday, September 4, 2023 at 4:10 pm (Tropicana Field)

Aaron Civale (7-3) (2.64) vs Brayan Bello (10-8) (3.57)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -142 / Boston Red Sox +120 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Boston Red Sox will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their series on Monday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Rays are coming off of a series loss over the weekend, while the Red Sox were able to snap their losing streak and get a series win. 

Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 71-66 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Boston is coming off of a series win against Kansas City, where they won two out of three games. The Red Sox pitching staff has had some issues lately, allowing 5+ runs in eight of their last nine games. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.54 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a .261 opponent batting average this year. The Red Sox offense has scored 683 runs with a .264 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Justin Turner is batting .285 with 22 home runs and 89 RBI’s for the Red Sox. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 131 innings pitched this season.

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 83-54 this season and they have won five of their last seven games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series loss to Cleveland, where they lost two out of three games on the road. The Rays had some issues in Cleveland, but they have played great baseball over the last month. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .232 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 732 runs with a .260 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this season. Randy Arozarena is batting .261 with 21 home runs and 78 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Aaron Civale, who is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 102.1 innings pitched this year.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won each of their last 10 home games against the Red Sox following a win.
  • The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against the Red Sox.
  • The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four games between the Red Sox and Rays.

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

  • The Red Sox have lost each of their last 12 games at Tropicana Field against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against AL East opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last four games as road underdogs.
  • The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays' last four games against the Red Sox at Tropicana Field.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents at Tropicana Field.
  • Randy Arozarena has scored at least one run in eight of the Rays' last nine games at Tropicana Field.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL East opponents.
  • Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 8th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.398) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

  • Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox's last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
  • Justin Turner has recorded at least one RBI in 11 of his last 12 appearances with the Red Sox as underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Justin Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox's last four road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Masataka Yoshida has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Adam Duvall has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks T3rd in the league for home runs this season (198).
  • The Boston Red Sox ranks 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.264).
  • The Boston Red Sox are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Pick

The Rays were able to avoid being swept with their win on Sunday afternoon and they remain a couple games behind the Orioles in the AL East. On the other side, Boston has had plenty of struggles pitching recently and they are 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race. The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The Rays are starting Aaron Civale, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. The Red Sox need a series win very badly, as they are just about out of the Wild Card race in the American League, but I don’t like the direction their pitching is going. Take the Rays here. 

David’s Pick Rays ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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