Mariners vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/4/23

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The Seattle Mariners will play the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of their series on Monday afternoon at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds are coming off of a terrible pitching performance against the Cubs on Sunday, while Seattle is coming off of a rare series loss. 

Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 77-59 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Seattle is coming off of a series loss to the Mets, where they lost two out of three games on the road. The Mariners are currently leading the AL West standings, but Houston and Texas are only one game back. The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average this season. The Mariners offense has scored 652 runs with a .244 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. J.P. Crawford is batting .270 with 14 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Mariners. The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Bryan Woo, who is 2-3 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 65 innings pitched this year.

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 71-68 this season and they have lost seven of their last eleven games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series split with the Cubs, where they won two games and lost two games. The Reds did allow 15 runs in their loss on Sunday and their pitching staff is dealing with a minor covid outbreak. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.72 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .257 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 655 runs with a .247 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .270 with 19 home runs and 73 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Tejay Antone, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over one inning of work this season.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have won each of their last 10 games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Reds have covered the run line each of their last eight games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last four day games against AL West opponents.
  • The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Reds have led after 7 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs against AL West opponents.

Seattle Mariners Team Facts

  • The Mariners have won each of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Mariners have covered the run line 14 of their last 16 road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Mariners have led after 7 innings in each of their last four games against the Reds at Great American Ball Park.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mariners' last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Reds against AL opponents.
  • Spencer Steer has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Reds' last four games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in each of the Reds' last five games against AL West opponents.
  • Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one total base in eight of his last nine appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jake Fraley has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against AL West opponents.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

  • J.P. Crawford has hit a home run in three of the Mariners' last four games as road favorites against NL opponents.
  • Eugenio Suarez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mariners' last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded two hits in each of the Mariners' last five games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Julio Rodriguez has recorded two or more total bases in nine of his last 10 appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Julio Rodriguez has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances after playing the previous day.
  • J.P. Crawford ranks 10th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.388) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1299).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (191).
  • The Seattle Mariners ranks 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1356).
  • The Seattle Mariners ranks 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (547).

Pick

The Reds continue to have some issues with their pitching staff being healthy and we saw the negative impact of that on Sunday, when the Cubs scored 15 runs. Seattle has been hot offensively, so I could see them putting up a bunch of runs in this series. The Mariners have played great baseball over the last two months and they are 38-30 on the road. Seattle is starting Bryan Woo, who has allowed three earned runs in his last 16 innings pitched. Cincinnati is starting Tejay Antone, who will serve as an opener. Woo has been very solid in his last three outings and I just feel like the Reds are dealing with a lot off of the diamond right now. Take the Mariners -1.5 in this game. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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