Marlins vs Nationals Prediction - MLB Picks 9/3/23

Washington Nationals (62-75) vs Miami Marlins (69-67)

Game Info: Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 1:35 pm (Nationals Park)

Josiah Gray (7-11) (4.05) vs Sandy Alcantara (6-12) (4.23)

Betting Odds: Washington Nationals +154 / Miami Marlins -185 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Marlins will play the Washington Nationals in Game 4 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Miami has won the first three games in this series by scores of 6-1, 8-5, and 11-5. Miami is fighting in the NL Wild Card race and they are one game out currently. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 69-67 this season and they have won three games in a row. The Marlins were struggling coming into this series, but they are looking for a huge four game sweep here. Prior to this series, Miami scored 3 runs or fewer in nine of their previous ten games. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this year. The Marlins offense has scored 553 runs with a .259 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Luis Arraez is batting .355 with five home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 6-12 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 176.2 innings pitched this season.

Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals are 62-75 this season and they have lost six of their last seven games. Prior to this series, Washington lost two out of three games to the Blue Jays. The Nationals have allowed 32 runs in their last four games. The Washington pitching staff has a 4.93 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a .269 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 591 runs with a .256 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Lane Thomas is batting .282 with 22 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Nationals. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Josiah Gray, who is 7-11 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 137.2 innings pitched this year. 

Washington Nationals Team Facts

  • The Nationals have lost each of their last seven day games against the Marlins at Nationals Park following a home loss.
  • The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against the Marlins at Nationals Park following a home loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last four games as underdogs.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have won each of their last 12 games against the Nationals following a road win.
  • The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games against NL East opponents following a road win.
  • The Marlins have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against the Nationals at Nationals Park.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last four games as favorites.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

  • Lane Thomas has hit a home run in five of his last six appearances against the Marlins at Nationals Park.
  • Lane Thomas has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against the Marlins at Nationals Park.
  • Lane Thomas has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents at Nationals Park.
  • Josiah Gray has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last nine appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Lane Thomas has scored a run in each of his last six appearances against the Marlins at Nationals Park.
  • Lane Thomas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jorge Soler has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine road appearances against the Nationals.
  • Jorge Soler has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances with the Marlins as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in eight of his nine previous road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven Sunday appearances in day games with the Marlins as favorites.
  • Jorge Soler has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Marlins as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • Jorge Soler ranks T6th in the league in Home Runs (35) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Washington Nationals ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (970).
  • The Washington Nationals ranks 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (1032).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 27th in the league for RBI's this season (526).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts this season (1264).

Pick

The Marlins have played very well in this series and they are right in the middle of the NL Wild Card race. Miami is only 31-36 on the road this season, but they need this win very badly. The Nationals come into this game really struggling and they are only 29-39 at home this year. Washington is starting Josiah Gray, who has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last five starts. Miami is starting Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts (12.1 IP). Both starting pitchers have had issues in recent starts and I think both offenses will get things going here. I am going to take a shot on Washington as a good sized home underdog. 

David’s Pick Nationals ML

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