Cubs vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/3/23

Cincinnati Reds (71-67) vs Chicago Cubs (72-64)

Game Info: Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 12:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Carson Spiers (0-0) (0.00) vs Jameson Taillon (7-9) (5.62)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds +110 / Chicago Cubs -130 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Chicago Cubs will play the Cincinnati Reds in Game 4 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Cubs won the first game in this series by a score of 6-2, but Cincinnati has won the last two games by scores of 3-2 and 2-1. 

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 72-64 this season and they have won five of their last eight games. Chicago is right in the middle of the race for the NL Central, as well as the Wild Card, but they are starting to lose ground to Milwaukee. The Cubs have allowed three runs or fewer in five straight contests. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 677 runs with a .252 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. Cody Bellinger is batting .319 with 22 home runs and 81 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, who is 7-9 with a 5.62 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 121.2 innings pitched this season.

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 71-67 this season and they have won three of their last four games. The Reds are also in the NL Central race, but they are two games behind the Cubs. Cincinnati is much closer to a Wild Card spot, as they are tied for the last spot with three other teams. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.66 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a .256 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 648 runs with a .247 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .270 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Carson Spiers, who is making his first appearance of the year. 

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have lost each of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight home games following a home win.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last five games as underdogs.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a winning record.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The Cubs have won 10 of their last 11 day games following a loss.
  • The Cubs have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games at Great American Ball Park following a road loss.
  • The Cubs have led after 7 innings in each of their last five road games against NL Central opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last three games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • Jake Fraley has hit a home run in six of his last 14 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Spencer Steer has scored a run in three of the Reds' last four day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jake Fraley has recorded two or more total bases in five of his last six home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jake Fraley has recorded two or more hits in each of the Reds' last two games at Great American Ball Park.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Cody Bellinger has hit a home run in three of the Cubs' last four road games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one RBI in 10 of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded three or more total bases in five of his last six appearances at Great American Ball Park.
  • Nico Hoerner has scored at least one run in each of the Cubs' last six day games.
  • Jameson Taillon has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four road appearances against the Reds.
  • Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs' last 14 road games.
  • Cody Bellinger ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.319) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1288).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (189).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 6th in the league for runs scored this season (677).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks T6th in the league for steals this season (116).

Pick

These two teams are locked into the postseason battle and while Milwaukee looks to be running away with the NL Central, the Wild Card is in reach for both of these teams. The Reds are under .500 at home this year and they are dealing with some starting pitchers being out, but they are looking for the series win here. Cincinnati is starting Carson Spiers, who is making his MLB debut. The Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon, who has allowed 4, 4, 2, and 8 earned runs in his last four starts. I like the over in this game. 

David’s Pick Over 9.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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