Cubs vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/2/23

Cincinnati Reds (70-67) vs Chicago Cubs (72-63)

Game Info: Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Andrew Abbott (8-4) (3.35) vs Javier Assad (3-1) (2.96)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -115 / Chicago Cubs -105 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Chicago Cubs will play the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday night at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. These two teams played a doubleheader on Friday, with both teams winning one game. Chicago won the first game on Friday by a score of 6-2, while Cincinnati won the second game by a score of 3-2. 

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 72-63 this season and they have won five of their last seven games. Prior to this series, Chicago won two out of three games against Milwaukee and three out of four games against Pittsburgh. The Cubs are currently a few games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, but they are currently holding a NL Wild Card spot. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 676 runs with a .252 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. Ian Happ is batting .246 with 17 home runs and 68 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Javier Assad, who is 3-2 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 79 innings pitched this year. 

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 70-67 this season and they have lost six of their last nine games. Cincinnati has won two of their last three games, but they are coming off of a series loss to the Giants. The Reds are currently on the outside looking in with the NL Wild Card race, but they are only a couple of games out of the last spot. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.69 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .256 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 646 runs with a .246 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .267 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 8-4 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 88.2 innings pitched this season.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have lost nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a win.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games at Great American Ball Park following a home win.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last four games as underdogs.
  • The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against National League opponents.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The Cubs have won each of their last seven road games following a loss.
  • The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games following a road loss.
  • The Cubs have led after 7 innings in each of their last four road games against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • TJ Friedl has hit a home run in each of the Reds' last three Saturday games at Great American Ball Park.
  • Jake Fraley has recorded two or more total bases in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in eight of the Reds' last nine Saturday games as underdogs.
  • Jake Fraley has recorded at least one hit in nine of his last 11 home appearances after playing the previous day.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Cody Bellinger has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against the Reds at Great American Ball Park.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Seiya Suzuki has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Cubs' last nine road games.
  • Nico Hoerner has scored at least one run in each of the Cubs' last eight games as road favorites against the Reds.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Nico Hoerner ranks T6th in the league in Steals (35) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1281).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (188).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 6th in the league for RBI's this season (649).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 6th in the league for steals this season (115).

Pick

This game is very important to each of these teams, as the Cubs try to catch the Brewers and the Reds try to sneak into a Wild Card spot. The Cubs have played very well down the stretch this season, while Cincinnati has played pretty inconsistently. The Reds are starting Andrew Abbott, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts. The Cubs are starting Javier Assad, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. We have a pretty solid pitching matchup in this game, between two pitchers that have been very solid lately. I really like Abbott for the Reds, but I am going to take the Cubs in this game. Chicago has been the better team recently and Assad has been dealing. Take the Cubs here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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