Cubs vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 9/1/23

Cincinnati Reds (69-66) vs Chicago Cubs (71-62)

Game Info: Friday, September 1, 2023 at 1:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Graham Ashcraft/Ben Lively vs Jordan Wicks/Shane Greene

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -111 / Chicago Cubs -106 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Chicago Cubs will play the Cincinnati Reds in a doubleheader on Friday at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati is coming off of another series loss, while the Cubs were able to get a huge series win over the first place Brewers. 

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 71-62 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Chicago is coming off of a series win against the Brewers, where they won two out of three games. The Cubs have pitched very well recently, allowing two runs or fewer in three of their last four games. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 668 runs with a .253 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. Cody Bellinger is batting .316 with 20 home runs and 77 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago in Game 1 is Jordan Wicks, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP over 5 innings pitched. The projected starting pitcher for Game 2 is Shane Greene, who hasn’t started a MLB game since 2016. 

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 69-66 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against the Giants, where they lost two out of three games. The Reds have really struggled and are currently just outside of the last NL Wild Card spot. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.70 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a .257 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 641 runs with a .247 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .268 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati in Game 1 is Graham Ashcraft, who is 7-8 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 140.2 innings pitched this season. The projected starting pitcher for Game 2 is Ben Lively, who is 4-7 with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 76.2 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have lost eight of their last nine games against National League opponents following a win.
  • The Reds have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games on the first leg of a doubleheader against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three games between the Cubs and Reds.
  • The Reds have led after 7 innings in each of their last six Friday games against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The Cubs have won each of their last five games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
  • The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last five games on the first leg of a doubleheader.
  • The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last 11 games as favorites against National League opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • Spencer Steer has hit a home run in each of the Reds' last two games as underdogs against the Cubs.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Reds' last five home games against NL opponents.
  • Spencer Steer has scored at least one run in each of the Reds' last seven games as underdogs against the Cubs.
  • Tyler Stephenson has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances against the Cubs after not playing the previous day.
  • Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds' last six games at Great American Ball Park against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Dansby Swanson has hit at least one home run in three of the Cubs' last four games as favorites against the Reds.
  • Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Cubs' last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Seiya Suzuki has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Cubs' last seven road games.
  • Nico Hoerner has scored at least one run in each of the Cubs' last six games as road favorites against the Reds.
  • Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs' last 11 road games.
  • Nico Hoerner ranks 7th in the league in Steals (34) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 27th in the league for home runs allowed this season (184).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks T26th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1262).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks T6th in the league for walks this season (464).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks T7th in the league for triples this season (23).

Pick

This is a pretty big series for the NL Central and the NL Wild Card race, as Chicago is trying to catch the Brewers and the Reds are trying to stay close in the Wild Card race. The Reds have won five of the nine games with the Cubs this year, but they are under .500 at home. I really like how Chicago has played over the last couple of months and their lineup has been very dangerous. Ashcraft has been very good for the Reds lately, so I like Cincinnati to win Game 1. In the second game, I am going to roll with the Cubs, as I don’t love Lively for the Reds. 

David’s Pick Game 1: Reds ML Game 2: Cubs ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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