Astros vs Red Sox Prediction - MLB Picks 8/30/23

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The Houston Astros will play the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday afternoon at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Houston has won the first two games in this series by scores of 13-5 and 6-2. Boston is trying to stay relevant in the AL Wild Card race, but they have struggled in their last five games. 

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros are 76-58 this season and they have won four games in a row. Houston came into this series with some momentum after taking two out of three from Detroit on the road. The Astros offense continues to rake, scoring 45 runs in their last four games. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average this year. The Astros offense has scored 676 runs with a .257 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Kyle Tucker is batting .294 with 26 home runs and 97 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 9-9 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 161.2 innings pitched this season.

Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 69-64 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Boston came into this series after losing two out of three games to the Dodgers at home. The Red Sox have allowed 5+ runs in five straight games. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.46 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a .258 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 661 runs with a .265 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this season. Rafael Devers is batting .269 with 29 home runs and 88 RBI’s for the Red Sox. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Kutter Crawford, who is 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 101 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won six of the last seven games between the Astros and Red Sox at Fenway Park.
  • The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line seven of their last eight games at Fenway Park against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last three games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five games at Fenway Park against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last seven games against American League opponents.

Houston Astros Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won six of the Astros' last seven games at Fenway Park.
  • The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
  • The Astros have lost the first inning in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Astros have led after 7 innings in each of their last five games.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last six road games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

  • Adam Duvall has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox's last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Adam Duvall has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox's last six games against AL West opponents.
  • Adam Duvall has recorded three or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Adam Duvall has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox's last four games.
  • Rafael Devers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of the Astros' last three games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Astros' last eight games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Framber Valdez has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros' last four games against AL opponents.
  • Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of the Astros' last eight games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine Wednesday appearances against AL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Boston Red Sox ranks 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.265).
  • The Boston Red Sox are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Houston Astros are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
  • The Houston Astros ranks 5th in the league for runs scored this season (676).

Pick

Boston comes into this series looking to avoid the sweep, but their pitching staff has not been very good recently. Houston will look to take advantage of that pitching staff yet again, as they have scored 19 runs in the first two games. The Astros are starting Framber Valdez, who has allowed 0, 6, 3, 6, and 0 earned runs in his last five starts. The Red Sox are starting Kutter Crawford, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six straight outings. The Houston offense is rolling right now and while Crawford has been decent lately, he hasn’t been pitching very deep into games. Take the Astros here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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