Rays vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 8/29/23

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The Tampa Bay Rays will play the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their series on Tuesday night at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Tampa Bay comes into this series a few games back in the AL East, while Miami is a few games out of the final Wild Card spot in the NL. 

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 80-52 this season and they have won six of their last seven games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series win against the Yankees, where they won two out of three games. The Rays have played very well over the last couple of weeks and they have put their struggles in July behind them. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .232 opponent batting average this year. The Rays offense has scored 704 runs with a .260 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Randy Arozarena is batting .260 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Aaron Civale, who is 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 97.1 innings pitched this season.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 66-65 this season and they have lost eight of their last eleven games. Miami is coming off of a series loss against the Nationals, where they lost two out of three games at home. The Marlins offense has really struggled lately, scoring three runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 526 runs with a .258 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Jorge Soler is batting .241 with 35 home runs and 71 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 6-11 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 171 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last three games as home favorites following a win.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four night games against AL East opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four games between the Rays and Marlins.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against the Marlins following a win.
  • The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as road underdogs against the Marlins.
  • The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday night games against the Marlins.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last three games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jorge Soler has hit a home run in each of the Marlins' last two games as home favorites.
  • Luis Arraez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his three previous appearances with his team as a favorite against the Rays.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four home appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Jazz Chisholm has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances against AL East opponents.
  • Sandy Alcantara has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine home appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Jorge Soler ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (35) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Jose Siri has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Jose Siri has scored at least one run in each of the Rays' last five night games.
  • Harold Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rays' last four road games against NL East opponents.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances.
  • Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays' last seven games.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.403) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins ranks 28th in the league for walks this season (338).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks T27th in the league for runs scored this season (526).
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.

Pick

The Marlins come into this series really needing to pick up a couple of wins, as they continue to drop in that NL Wild Card race. On the other side, Tampa Bay is trying to chase down the Orioles in the AL East, but hasn’t been able to make up much ground lately. The Rays are starting Aaron Civale, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts since being acquired from Cleveland. Miami is starting Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 4, 3, 1, and 4 earned runs in his last four starts. This Marlins team is really struggling to hit the ball right now, so I am going to take the Rays on the road. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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