Pirates vs Royals Prediction - MLB Picks 8/28/23

Kansas City Royals Team Facts

• The favorites have won each of the last 11 games between the Pirates and Royals.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last six games against the Pirates following a loss.
• The Royals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Pirates and Royals.
• The Royals have led after 7 innings in each of their last five night games against the Pirates at Kauffman Stadium.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

• The Pirates have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five night games at Kauffman Stadium against AL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 13 games as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last five games at Kauffman Stadium.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a home run in four of the Royals' last seven home games.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in nine of the Royals' last 10 games against NL opponents at Kauffman Stadium.
• MJ Melendez has scored a run in each of the Royals' last five night games.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Royals' last seven home games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Zack Greinke has recorded three or more strikeouts in 35 of his last 36 appearances with his team as an underdog against NL opponents.
• MJ Melendez has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 appearances after playing the previous day.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in two of the Pirates' last three games at Kauffman Stadium against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Pirates' last four road games against the Royals.
• Connor Joe has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Pirates' last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances in night games.
• Johan Oviedo has recorded five strikeouts in each of his three previous appearances with the Pirates as favorites against AL opponents.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Kansas City Royals ranks 29th in the league for walks this season (318).
• The Kansas City Royals ranks 28th in the league for ERA this season (5.22).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 4th in the league for walks this season (462).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T26th in the league for home runs this season (127).

Pick

The Royals limp into this game after losing 13 of their last 17 games and they are 50 games under .500. The Pirates have struggled in their last five games, but they have played better over the last two months or so. The Pirates are starting Johan Oviedo, who has allowed 11 earned runs in his last three starts (14 IP). Kansas City is starting Zack Greinke, who has allowed four earned runs or more in two of his last four starts. Both teams have struggled recently, but I am going to take the Royals here. Greinke pitched four scoreless innings last time out and faces a Pirates team that isn’t great offensively. Take Kansas City here.