Padres vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 8/27/23

Milwaukee Brewers (72-57) vs San Diego Padres (61-69)

Game Info: Sunday, August 27, 2023 at 2:10 pm (American Family Field)

Adrian Houser (5-4) (4.28) vs Michael Wacha (10-2) (2.63)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers +102 / San Diego Padres -122 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The San Diego Padres will play the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Brewers have won the first two games in this series by scores of 7-3 and 5-4. Milwaukee has a nice lead in the NL Central, while the Padres are looking towards next season. 

Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres are 61-69 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Prior to this series, San Diego won two out of three games at home against the Marlins. The Padres had huge expectations this season, but they are fourth in the NL West. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average this year. The Padres offense haș scored 583 runs with a .237 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Juan Soto is batting .258 with 25 home runs and 78 RBI’s for the Padres. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Michael Wacha, who is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 96 innings pitched this season. 

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 72-57 this season and they have won seven games in a row. Milwaukee came into this series after taking both games against the Twins and sweeping the Rangers on the road. The Brewers have been able to score a ton of runs recently, scoring at least five runs in seven straight games. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 564 runs with a .235 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this year. Christian Yelich is batting .282 with 16 home runs and 67 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Adrian Houser, who is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 88.1 innings pitched this year. 

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have won each of their last four games as underdogs.
  • The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games following a home win.
  • The Brewers have led after 7 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last four home games against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres Team Facts

  • The Padres have lost eight of their last nine road games against NL Central opponents.
  • The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last five road games against the Brewers following a loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last five games as road favorites.
  • The Padres have trailed after 7 innings in six of their last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

  • Carlos Santana has hit at least one home run in four of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against the Padres.
  • Willy Adames has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Brewers' last seven games.
  • William Contreras has scored at least one run in each of the Brewers' last eight home games.
  • Adrian Houser has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents.
  • Carlos Santana has recorded two or more total bases in eight of his last nine appearances against the Padres.
  • Christian Yelich has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers' last nine games as home underdogs against NL opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

  • Trent Grisham has hit a home run in two of the Padres' last three games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres' last four games as road favorites against NL opponents.
  • Michael Wacha has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five road appearances against the Brewers.
  • Ha-Seong Kim has scored at least one run in seven of the Padres' last eight day games.
  • Trent Grisham has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Padres' last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres' last eight day games.
  • Ha-Seong Kim ranks T9th in the league in Steals (29) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for hits this season (1005).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 3rd in the league for walks this season (461).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks 4th in the league for hits allowed this season (1027).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks T4th in the league for runs allowed this season (526).

Pick

The Padres come into this game with a 26-36 record on the road and will be taking on the first place Brewers, who are 37-27 at home. San Diego has had one of the best team ERA’s in all of baseball, but their lineup hasn’t been able to consistently produce. The Padres are starting Michael Wacha, who has allowed four earned runs in his last five starts (28 IP). The Brewers are starting Adrian Houser, who has allowed eight earned runs in his last three starts (15.1 IP). Wacha has been great for the Padres this year and I will roll with him at a decent price. 

David’s Pick Padres ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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