Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 8/27/23

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

• The Phillies have won eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last three day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

St. Louis Cardinals Team Facts

• The Cardinals have won 13 of their last 15 games at Citizens Bank Park following a road loss.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as underdogs.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Nick Castellanos has hit at least one home run in three of the Phillies' last four games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last four games against the Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park.
• Bryce Harper has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Cardinals.
• Aaron Nola has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last seven day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against the Cardinals.
• Bryce Harper ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.398) this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Nolan Arenado has hit at least one home run in three of his five previous appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Nolan Arenado has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Willson Contreras has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Tommy Edman has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 5th in the league for triples this season (24).
• The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 5th in the league for batting average this season (.259).
• The St. Louis Cardinals ranks 29th in the league for hits allowed this season (1235).
• The St. Louis Cardinals ranks 28th in the league for strikeouts this season (1014).

Pick

The Phillies come into this game looking for the series sweep against a Cardinals team that has been very disappointing this year. Philadelphia is leading the NL Wild Card race and is 38-25 at home this year. The Phillies are starting Aaron Nola, who has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last five outings. St. Louis is starting Drew Rom, who allowed six earned runs in 3.2 innings to Pittsburgh in his first start. Rom looked horrible in that first outing and will face a better lineup here. Take the Phillies -1.5 in this game.