Padres vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 8/26/23

Milwaukee Brewers (71-57) vs San Diego Padres (61-68)

Game Info: Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 7:10 pm (American Family Field)

Freddy Peralta (10-8) (3.97) vs Pedro Avila (0-0) (1.17)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -118 / San Diego Padres -102 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The San Diego Padres will play the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 2 of their series on Saturday night at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Milwaukee won the first game in this series by a score of 7-3 and they are pulling away in the NL Central standings. On the other side, San Diego continues to disappoint and is basically out of the playoff race. 

Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres are 61-68 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. San Diego did get a series win against Miami in their last series, but they couldn’t keep that momentum going in Game 1 of this series. The Padres have a very talented lineup, but they have struggled to hit the ball consistently all season. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average this year. The Padres offense haș scored 579 runs with a .237 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Juan Soto is batting .257 with 24 home runs and 76 RBI’s for the Padres. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Pedro Avila, who is 0-0 with a 1.17 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 23 innings pitched this year. 

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 71-57 this season and they have won six games in a row. Prior to winning the first game in this series, Milwaukee swept the Twins in a two game set. The Brewers have scored six runs or more in all six of their wins during this winning streak. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 559 runs with a .235 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this year. Willy Adames is batting .216 with 21 home runs and 61 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is 10-8 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 133.2 innings pitched this season. 

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents following a win.
  • The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a win.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last three games as home favorites against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres Team Facts

  • The Padres have lost seven of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents.
  • The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
  • The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
  • The Padres have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

  • Willy Adames has hit a home run in three of the Brewers' last four games at American Family Field.
  • William Contreras has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Brewers' last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • William Contreras has scored at least one run in each of the Brewers' last seven home games.
  • Freddy Peralta has recorded nine or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Brewers as home favorites.
  • Carlos Santana has recorded two or more hits in each of his last four home appearances against the Padres.
  • Carlos Santana has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five home appearances against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

  • Gary Sanchez has hit a home run in two of the Padres' last three games against NL Central opponents.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last three appearances against the Brewers after playing the previous day.
  • Manny Machado has scored at least one run in four of the Padres' last five road games against NL opponents.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ha-Seong Kim ranks T9th in the league in Steals (29) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for hits this season (999).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 3rd in the league for walks this season (457).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks 4th in the league for hits allowed this season (1021).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks 5th in the league for ERA this season (3.80).

Pick

Milwaukee comes into this game playing great baseball and they will look for their seventh win in a row, while San Diego will try to improve their poor road record. The Brewers have a decent sized lead in the NL Central and they are pulling away from the Reds and Cubs. Milwaukee is starting Freddy Peralta, who has allowed two earned runs in his last 18.2 innings of work. San Diego is starting Pedro Avila, who has allowed one earned run in his last 9.1 innings. Avila will not pitch very deep into this game, but I think he will do enough to limit the Brewers here. I think we are going to see a lower scoring game and I like the under. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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