Yankees vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 8/25/23

Tampa Bay Rays (78-51) vs New York Yankees (61-66)

Game Info: Friday, August 25, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Tropicana Field)

Zach Eflin (13-7) (3.58) vs Gerrit Cole (10-4) (3.03)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -225 / New York Yankees +185 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New York Yankees will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Tampa Bay comes into this series trailing Baltimore by only a couple of games in the AL East, while New York is in last place and isn’t even close to the fourth place Red Sox. 

Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees are 61-66 this season and they have lost 10 of their last 11 games. New York is coming off of a series loss to Washington, where they lost two out of three games. The Yankees have really struggled with their pitching, allowing at least six runs in four of their last six games. The New York pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average this year. The Yankees offense has scored 538 runs with a .230 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Gleyber Torres is batting .268 with 20 home runs and 52 RBI’s for the Yankees. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Gerrit Cole, who is 10-4 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 160.1 innings pitched this season.

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 78-51 this season and they have won six of their last seven games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series win against Colorado, where they won two out of three games. The Rays offense has come to life lately, scoring 41 runs in their last four games. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 692 runs with a .261 batting average and a .332 on base percentage this season. Isaac Paredes is batting .257 with 26 home runs and 80 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zach Eflin, who is 13-7 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 138.1 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won 14 of their last 15 games at Tropicana Field against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
  • The Rays have led after 7 innings in each of their last six home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.

New York Yankees Team Facts

  • The Yankees have lost each of their last six road games after playing the previous day.
  • The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in 20 of their last 21 Friday games against American League opponents.
  • The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road games.
  • The Yankees have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five night games at Tropicana Field against American League opponents.
  • The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games at Tropicana Field against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in three of the Rays' last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rays' last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Randy Arozarena has scored at least one run in each of the Rays' last nine games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Zach Eflin has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last eight appearances in night games.
  • Josh Lowe has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays' last nine home games.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.326) this season.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

  • Aaron Judge has hit at least one home run in six of his last seven appearances with the Yankees as road underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Aaron Judge has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances with the Yankees as road underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Gerrit Cole has recorded 10+ strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances against the Rays at Tropicana Field.
  • Aaron Judge has recorded five or more total bases in each of his last three road appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
  • Aaron Judge has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances with the Yankees as road underdogs against AL opponents.
  • DJ LeMahieu has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Gerrit Cole ranks 8th in the league for total Strikeouts (170) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 3rd in the league for home runs this season (189).
  • The New York Yankees ranks 29th in the league for batting average this season (.230).
  • The New York Yankees ranks 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.233).

Pick

The Yankees have played very poorly over the last two weeks and they have completely fallen apart. On the flip side, Tampa Bay has put their poor July behind them and they are playing really solid baseball right now. The Rays are starting Zach Eflin, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Yankees are starting Gerrit Cole, who has allowed four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts. It is crazy to see the Yankees as such a big underdog with their ace on the mound, but that shows you just how bad they have been. I am going to take a look at this total, which seems low to me. Cole has been shaky lately, while Eflin has had his fair share of blowups this year. Take the over here. 

David’s Pick Over 7.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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