Red Sox vs Astros Prediction - MLB Picks 8/24/23

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The Boston Red Sox will play the Houston Astros in Game 4 of their series on Thursday afternoon at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Houston won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-4 and 7-3, but Boston fought back with an extra inning 7-5 win on Wednesday in Game 3. 

Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 67-60 this season and they have won four of their last six games. The Red Sox swept the Yankees over the weekend in New York, but they have had trouble getting Houston out in this series. The Red Sox have allowed 21 runs in three games so far and they will need a better pitching performance if they want to split the series. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .256 opponent batting average this year. The Red Sox offense has scored 621 runs with a .262 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. Triston Casas is batting .251 with 20 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Red Sox. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 9-7 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 119.1 innings pitched this season.

Astros Preview

The Houston Astros are 72-56 this season and they have lost six of their last ten games. The Astros were swept by Seattle in their last series, so they were able to bounce back nicely in Games 1 and 2 of this series. The Astros have been a bit inconsistent hitting the ball over the last few weeks, but they still have one of the better lineups in baseball. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 629 runs with a .253 batting average and a .326 on base percentage this season. Kyle Tucker is batting .293 with 25 home runs and 95 RBI’s for the Astros. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is J.P. France, who is 9-4 with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 108 innings pitched this year. 

Houston Astros Team Facts

  • The Astros have won 10 of their last 11 day games at Minute Maid Park following an extra innings loss.
  • The Astros have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against AL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Astros have trailed after 7 innings in four of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents.
  • The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games against the Red Sox.
  • The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

  • The Red Sox have lost each of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven games at Minute Maid Park against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five day games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday day road games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with the Astros as favorites.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Red Sox at Minute Maid Park.
  • Jose Altuve has scored at least one run in each of the Astros' last seven day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Chas McCormick has recorded two or more total bases in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
  • Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

  • Adam Duvall has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against the Astros.
  • Justin Turner has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances with the Red Sox as underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • Adam Duvall has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
  • Rafael Devers has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six appearances in day games.
  • Rafael Devers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox's last eight day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Houston Astros ranks 6th in the league for RBI's this season (609).
  • The Houston Astros ranks 6th in the league for ERA this season (3.85).
  • The Boston Red Sox ranks 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.262).
  • The Boston Red Sox are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Pick

These two teams played a thrilling game on Wednesday night, where the Red Sox were able to come from behind and get the win in extra innings. Boston is hanging on the edge of the AL Wild Card race, while Houston is right in the middle of the battle for the AL West. The Astros are chasing the Rangers for first place, but the Mariners have played great baseball and are right on Houston’s tail. Houston is starting J.P. France, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. Boston is starting Brayan Bello, who has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last six starts. France has been great for Houston this year and I like them to get the win here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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