Twins vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 8/23/23

Milwaukee Brewers (68-57) vs Minnesota Twins (65-60)

Game Info: Wednesday, August 23, 2023 at 2:10 pm (American Family Field)

Corbin Burnes (9-6) (3.43) vs Kenta Maeda (3-7) (4.13)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -123 / Minnesota Twins +106 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers face off on Wednesday in an MLB showdown at American Family Field. On Tuesday it was the Brewers that secured the 7-3 victory. 

Will Maeda Start In the Postseason?

It’s no guarantee that the Twins are going to make the postseason, but it seems like it’s a decent bet that might happen with the lead in the American League Central. If the Twins do make the playoffs one of the big questions is will Kenta Maeda start. Maeda had been pitching better but in his last start against the Tigers he struggled a bit going four innings giving up seven hits and three runs. On Tuesday the bullpen blew another game and not upgrading that part of the team is excusable by the Twins offense. The Twins are averaging 4.41 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.06 runs per game. The Twins offense is ranked 20th while the pitching is ranked 5th. Max Kepler has hit 20 home runs and driven in 48 RBIs. 

Twins Betting Trends

  • The Twins have won five of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
  • The Twins have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
  • The Twins have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last four games at American Family Field.

Why Isn’t the Brewers Offense Good?

This Brewers team is talented, but their offense just hasn’t been good enough overall. They are averaging 4.29 runs which is 22nd in the league. On Tuesday Willy Adames hit a home run and drove in two runs. Far too often this season the Brewers have scored only a run or two. The pitching is giving up 4.256 runs per game which is 10ths in the league. On the mound for the Brewers is Corbin Burnes who sits with a 9-6 record and an ERA of 3.43. 

Brewers Betting Trends

  • The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a home win.
  • The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a home win.
  • The Brewers have trailed after 7 innings in four of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last four games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
  • The Brewers have won the first inning in each of their last five games at American Family Field against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Twins vs Brewers Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for hits this season (978).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for batting average this season (.234).
  • The Minnesota Twins ranks 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (350).
  • The Minnesota Twins are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Shane’s Free Pick

This game is going to be lower scoring. Maeda is going to bounce back here, and the Brewers offense is going to really struggle here. Burnes sits with an ERA of 3.43 and he’s going to lockdown the Twins bats here. Neither team is going to score more than four runs and that will lead to this game staying under the total. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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