Pirates vs Twins Prediction - MLB Picks 8/19/23

Minnesota Twins (64-59) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (54-68)

Game Info: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Target Field)

Sonny Gray (6-5) (3.04) vs Mitch Keller (9-8) (4.27)

Betting Odds: Minnesota Twins -175 / Pittsburgh Pirates +145 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Pittsburgh Pirates will play the Minnesota Twins in Game 2 of their series on Saturday night at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins won the first game in this series by a score of 5-1 on Friday night and they are currently in control of the AL Central standings. Pittsburgh has had an up and down season, and they are in the basement of the NL Central standings with the Cardinals. 

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 54-68 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Pittsburgh came into this series after losing two out of three games to the Mets. The Pirates offense continues to be an issue, as they have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last seven games. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.61 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average this year. The Pirates offense has scored 506 runs with a .235 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .270 with 18 home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 9-8 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 149.2 innings pitched this season. 

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 64-59 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Prior to this series, Minnesota split a two game series with the Tigers in Minnesota. The Twins are 35-25 at home this year and their offense has been solid over the last five games. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Twins offense has scored 545 runs with a .239 batting average and a .318 on base percentage this season. Carlos Correa is batting .230 with 15 home runs and 54 RBI’s for the Twins. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Sonny Gray, who is 6-5 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 136.1 innings pitched this year. 

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The Twins have won each of their last seven home games against National League opponents.
  • The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The Twins have led after 7 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last six home games against National League opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The Pirates have won seven of their last eight games as road underdogs following a road loss.
  • The Pirates have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games following a road loss.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four road games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last five Saturday games.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Michael A. Taylor has hit a home run in four of the Twins' last five games as home favorites against NL opponents.
  • Michael A. Taylor has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Pirates.
  • Sonny Gray has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four home appearances against the Pirates.
  • Max Kepler has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Twins' last four games against NL opponents at Target Field.
  • Carlos Correa has scored a run in each of the Twins' last five games against NL Central opponents at Target Field.
  • Donovan Solano has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates' last six road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded an RBI in four of the Pirates' last five games as road underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Mitch Keller has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Pirates' last three games as underdogs.
  • Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog against AL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Minnesota Twins ranks 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (333).
  • The Minnesota Twins are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 26th in the league for batting average this season (.235).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 25th in the league for runs scored this season (506).

Pick

The Twins have picked up their play over the last month or so and they are starting to pull away with the AL Central. Minnesota is the only team above .500 in the AL Central, but credit to them for doing enough to have the lead. Minnesota is starting Sonny Gray, who has allowed four earned runs in his last three starts (19 IP). Pittsburgh is starting Mitch Keller, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Keller has had an eventful last few starts, allowing 1, 3, 8, 2, 6, and 8 earned runs. Sonny Gray has been dealing for the Twins this year and they are at home. Give me Minnesota -1.5 here. 

David’s Pick Twins -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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