Tigers vs Guardians Prediction - MLB Picks 8/18/23

Cleveland Guardians (58-63) vs Detroit Tigers (54-66)

Game Info: Friday, August 18, 2023 at 4:10 pm (Progressive Field)

Gavin Williams/Xzavion Curry vs Tarik Skubal/Matt Manning

Betting Odds: Cleveland Guardians / Detroit Tigers --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Detroit Tigers will play the Cleveland Guardians in a double header on Friday in Games 1 and 2 of their series at Progressive Field. Cleveland hasn’t played very well recently, but they are only 4.5 games behind the Twins in the AL Central. Detroit is over .500 in their last nine games, but they are just about out of contention in the Central. 

Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 54-66 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Detroit is coming off of a series split with the Twins, where they won one game and lost one game. The Tigers pitching staff has been decent this year, but they have allowed a total of 18 runs in their last three games. The Detroit pitching staff has a 4.48 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average this year. The Tigers offense has scored 477 runs with a .235 batting average and a .300 on base percentage. Spencer Torkelson is batting .230 with 21 home runs and 66 RBI’s for the Tigers. The projected starting pitcher in Game 1 is Tarik Skubal, who is 2-2 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 32.1 innings pitched this year. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit in Game 2 is Matt Manning, who is 4-4 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 58.2 innings pitched this season. 

Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 58-63 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Cleveland is coming off of a series split with the Reds, where they won one game and lost one game. The Guardians offense is towards the bottom in the MLB, but they have scored 27 runs in their last five games. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 490 runs with a .250 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Jose Ramirez is batting .286 with 18 home runs and 66 RBI’s for the Guardians. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland in Game 1 is Gavin Williams, who is 1-3 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 54.2 innings pitched. The projected starting pitcher in Game 2 is Xzavion Curry, who is 3-1 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 69 innings pitched this year. 

Cleveland Guardians Team Facts

  • The Guardians have won each of their last 12 games as home favorites against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
  • The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as home favorites against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
  • The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last six games as favorites.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last three games.
  • The Guardians have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against American League opponents.

Detroit Tigers Team Facts

  • The Tigers have lost 15 of their last 17 games at Progressive Field following a win.
  • The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in 15 of their last 17 road games against the Guardians following a win.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Tigers' last three games at Progressive Field.
  • The Tigers have led after 7 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

  • Kole Calhoun has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Tigers.
  • Kole Calhoun has scored a run in each of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against AL Central opponents.
  • Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Guardians' last 10 games as home favorites against the Tigers.
  • Andres Gimenez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Guardians' last four games against AL opponents.
  • Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last 23 Friday games as favorites.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

  • Spencer Torkelson has hit at least one home run in three of the Tigers' last four games as underdogs.
  • Spencer Torkelson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Tigers' last four road games against AL opponents.
  • Spencer Torkelson has scored at least one run in each of the Tigers' last four road games.
  • Riley Greene has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 Friday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
  • Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one hit in each of the Tigers' last 14 games against AL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cleveland Guardians ranks 29th in the league for RBI's this season (457).
  • The Cleveland Guardians ranks 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (122).
  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for RBI's this season (459).
  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.378).

Pick

Cleveland comes into this series desperately needing to take at least three games, but they have struggled against Detroit this year and are 2-4 in the season series. Both offenses have been really bad at scoring runs this season, but Cleveland’s has perked up recently. In Game 1, I really like the pitching matchup. Skubal has been inconsistent for the Tigers but I think he finds success here, while Williams has been a stud for Cleveland. Take the under in Game 1. In Game 2, I think the Guardians have the pitching advantage, as Matt Manning has allowed 17 earned runs in his last four starts. I like Cleveland to get the win in Game 2. 

David’s Pick Game 1: Under 8 Game 2: Guardians ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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