Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction - MLB Picks 8/17/23

San Diego Padres (58-63) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (61-60)

Game Info: Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 9:40 pm (Petco Park)

Rich Hill (7-12) (5.17) vs Zac Gallen (12-5) (3.24)

Betting Odds: San Diego Padres -108 / Arizona Diamondbacks -112 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arizona Diamondbacks will play the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of their series on Thursday night at Petco Park in San Diego, California. The Padres are coming off of a very nice series win, while Arizona is playing their best baseball in the last month. These two teams met last weekend, with Arizona winning two out of three games at Chase Field. 

Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 61-60 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Arizona is coming off of a series win against the Rockies, where they won two out of three games. The Diamondbacks offense has looked better over the last five games, scoring a total of 29 runs. The Arizona pitching staff has a 4.68 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a .256 opponent batting average this season. The Diamondbacks offense has scored 570 runs with a .255 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Corbin Carroll is batting .272 with 21 home runs and 59 RBI’s for the Diamondbacks. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Zac Gallen, who is 12-5 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 155.2 innings pitched this year. 

Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres are 58-63 this season and they have lost seven of their last ten games. San Diego is coming off of a series win against the Orioles, where they won two out of three games. The Padres have only won one of their last four series, but they continue to hang around in the NL Wild Card race. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 556 runs with a .241 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this year. Juan Soto is batting .265 with 24 home runs and 75 RBI’s for the Padres. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Rich Hill, who is 7-12 with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP over 125.1 innings pitched this season.

San Diego Padres Team Facts

  • The Padres have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against NL West opponents.
  • The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Thursday games at Petco Park.
  • The Padres have won the first inning in each of their last four Thursday games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last three games as home underdogs.
  • The Padres have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Facts

  • The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last seven road games against the Padres following a road win.
  • The Diamondbacks have covered the run line eight of their last nine road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Diamondbacks have trailed after 7 innings in five of their last six games as road favorites against NL West opponents.
  • The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Petco Park against opponents that held a losing record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

  • Ha-Seong Kim ranks 10th in the league in Steals (27) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

  • Zac Gallen ranks T4th in the league for Wins (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The San Diego Padres ranks T3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (492).
  • The San Diego Padres ranks 5th in the league for ERA this season (3.81).
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (929).
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Pick

Both of these teams are coming off very big series wins this week, which sets this up to be a very important series in the Wild Card race. Arizona does have the upper hand on San Diego in the standings, but the Padres will be at home. Arizona is starting Zac Gallen, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. San Diego is starting Rich Hill, who has allowed nine earned runs in 6.1 innings of work for San Diego this year. I do not trust Rich Hill at all, so I am taking the Diamondbacks on the road. 

David’s Pick Diamondbacks ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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