Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction - MLB Picks 8/16/23

Toronto Blue Jays (67-54) vs Philadelphia Phillies (65-55)

Game Info: Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 7:07 pm (Rogers Centre)

Kevin Gausman (9-6) (3.04) vs Aaron Nola (9-8) (4.49)

Betting Odds: Toronto Blue Jays -162 / Philadelphia Phillies +136 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 2 of their series on Wednesday night at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Toronto won the first game in this series by a score of 2-1 on Tuesday night in a pitching duel. Both teams were very good on the mound in this one, with both teams scoring a run in the six inning and Toronto scoring the winning run in the eighth. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 65-55 this season and they have lost three games in a row. Prior to this series, Philadelphia lost two out of three games to the Twins at home. The Phillies had been hitting the ball very well, but they have only scored two runs in their last three games. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this season. The Phillies offense has scored 551 runs with a .255 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .286 with seven home runs and 38 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 9-8 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 148.1 innings pitched this year. 

Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 67-54 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Toronto had struggled a little bit coming into this series, losing four out of seven games to the Cubs and Guardians. The Toronto pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays offense has scored 542 runs with a .260 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this year. George Springer is batting .259 with 14 home runs and 48 RBI’s for the Blue Jays. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Kevin Gausman, who is 9-6 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 139 innings pitched this season. 

Toronto Blue Jays Team Facts

  • The Blue Jays have won each of their last nine games against NL East opponents following a home win.
  • The Blue Jays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Phillies following a home win.
  • The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four games between the Phillies and Blue Jays.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won each of their last three games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last five night games against AL East opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

  • Brandon Belt has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
  • George Springer has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Blue Jays' last three games against NL East opponents.
  • Whit Merrifield has scored at least one run in nine of the Blue Jays' last 10 games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Kevin Gausman has recorded eight or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Brandon Belt has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six appearances in night games.
  • George Springer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays' last 10 night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Kevin Gausman ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (3.04) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with his team as an underdog against the Blue Jays.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last seven Wednesday night games.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded two or more total bases in four of his last five appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.
  • Alec Bohm has scored a run in four of his five previous appearances with the Phillies as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against AL opponents.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Toronto Blue Jays ranks 3rd in the league for hits this season (1078).
  • The Toronto Blue Jays ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts this season (1134).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 7th in the league for doubles this season (220).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 24th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1098).

Pick

The Blue Jays have struggled to hit the ball consistently over the last couple of weeks, but they have one of the best team ERA’s in the MLB. Toronto is 32-26 at home this season, while Philadelphia is 31-31 on the road. The Phillies are starting Aaron Nola, who has allowed 11 earned runs in his last three starts (15 IP). Toronto is starting Kevin Gausman, who has allowed eight earned runs in his last four starts (23.1 IP). Gausman threw seven shutout innings in his last start against Cleveland and he is facing a Philadelphia team that has only scored two runs in their last three games. Take the under here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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