Twins vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 8/13/23

Philadelphia Phillies (65-53) vs Minnesota Twins (61-58)

Game Info: Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 1:35 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Ranger Suarez (2-5) (3.96) vs Sonny Gray (5-5) (3.18)

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -118 / Minnesota Twins -102 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Minnesota Twins will play the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies won the first game in this series by a score of 13-2 on Friday, but the Twins answered with an 8-1 win on Saturday night. Despite the loss, Philadelphia has played very well over the last two weeks and will look for the series win here. 

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 61-58 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Prior to this series, Minnesota lost three out of four games in Detroit. The Twins only scored a total of seven runs in their previous four games, so it was great to see the explosiveness come back in Saturday’s win. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average this year. The Twins offense has scored 525 runs with a .237 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Carlos Correa is batting .230 with 15 home runs and 54 RBI’s for the Twins. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Sonny Gray, who is 5-5 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 130.1 innings pitched this season.

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 65-53 this season and they have won six of their last eight games. The Phillies came into this series with plenty of momentum, as they were able to take three out of four games at home against Washington in their last series. Philadelphia has scored at least six runs in six of their last eight games. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 550 runs with a .257 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Nick Castellanos is batting .282 with 20 home runs and 73 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 2-5 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 91.0 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won each of their last 10 home games against AL Central opponents following a loss.
  • The favorites have covered the run line in seven of the Phillies' last eight games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against AL Central opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last five Sunday games at Citizens Bank Park.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The Twins have lost each of their last 10 games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
  • The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
  • The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Sunday games.
  • The Twins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in each of the Phillies' last two games as home favorites.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in six of his seven previous appearances with his team as a favorite against the Twins.
  • Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies' last eight home games.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his seven previous appearances with his team as a favorite against the Twins.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last 11 games as favorites.
  • Bryson Stott ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.299) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Max Kepler has hit a home run in each of the Twins' last four games as road underdogs against the Phillies.
  • Max Kepler has recorded an RBI in seven of his last eight appearances.
  • Max Kepler has scored a run in each of the Twins' last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Max Kepler has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Twins' last five road games against the Phillies.
  • Donovan Solano has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six road appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 6th in the league for doubles this season (219).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 24th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1074).
  • The Minnesota Twins ranks 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (321).
  • The Minnesota Twins are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Pick

Minnesota was able to snap their losing streak with a blow out win on Saturday, but they are only 28-34 on the road this year. The Phillies are 34-23 at home this season and they have been hitting the ball very well in recent series. Philadelphia is starting Ranger Suarez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two straight starts, but has allowed 16 hits in those two starts. Minnesota is starting Sonny Gray, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Suarez has allowed quite a few hits in his last two starts, while Gray has been solid for Minnesota all season. I will take the Twins here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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