Braves vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 8/12/23

New York Mets (52-63) vs Atlanta Braves (73-41)

Game Info: Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 1:10 pm (Citi Field)

Denyi Reyes/Jose Quintana vs Allan Winans/Spencer Strider

Betting Odds: New York Mets / Atlanta Braves --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Braves will play the New York Mets in a doubleheader on Saturday at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Atlanta won the first game in this series by a score of 7-0 on Friday night and they are running away with the NL East. New York was coming off of a nice series win, but they could not hit with runners in scoring position on Friday. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 73-41 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Prior to this series, Atlanta split a four game series with the Pirates. The Braves had struggled with their pitching in recent games (allowed 25 runs in the four games in Pittsburgh), but they were able to pitch out of danger on Friday night. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this season. The Braves offense has scored 651 runs with a .273 batting average and a .342 on base percentage. Ronald Acuna is batting .337 with 26 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta in Game 1 is Allan Winans, who is 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 4.1 innings pitched this year. The projected starting pitcher for Game 2 is Spencer Strider, who is 12-4 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 132.1 innings pitched. 

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 52-63 this season and they have lost eight of their last ten games. New York came into this series after winning two out of three games against the Cubs. The Mets were finally able to get a series win against Chicago, after losing six straight games to the Orioles and Royals. The New York pitching staff has a 4.38 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .250 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 497 runs with a .237 batting average and a .317 on base percentage this year. Pete Alonso is batting .226 with 35 home runs and 87 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York in Game 1 is Denyi Reyes, who is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 7.1 innings pitched this season. The projected starting pitcher for Game 2 is Jose Quintana, who is 0-3 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 23.2 innings pitched. 

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have won five of their last six games as underdogs on the first leg of a doubleheader.
  • The Mets have covered the run line each of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Mets have led after 7 innings in each of their last six Saturday games against the Braves at Citi Field.
  • The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Saturday games against the Braves at Citi Field.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last three games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won each of their last six games against NL East opponents.
  • The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents following a road win.
  • The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last three road games against NL East opponents.
  • The Braves have trailed after 7 innings in five of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Pete Alonso has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets' last four games against NL opponents.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Mets' last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in nine of the Mets' last 11 day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Omar Narvaez has recorded one total base in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Omar Narvaez has recorded a hit in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Pete Alonso ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.532) this season.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Austin Riley has hit a home run in each of the Braves' last three games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
  • Sean Murphy has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his eight previous appearances against the Mets.
  • Matt Olson has recorded at least one RBI in nine of the Braves' last 10 day games.
  • Matt Olson has scored at least one run in each of the Braves' last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 11 games against NL opponents.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks 1st in the league in Steals (53) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The New York Mets ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (907).
  • The New York Mets ranks 24th in the league for batting average this season (.237).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.498).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.342).

Pick

The Braves dominated the scoreboard in Game 1 of this series, but New York did strand a ton of runners on base. Atlanta has had some issues with their pitching staff recently, but New York has been very inconsistent hitting the ball. In the first game of this doubleheader, we have two pitchers facing each other that have very limited usage in the MLB this year. I think we are going to see a good amount of runs in this game and I like the over. For Game 2, we will have to see if Strider can bounce back after allowing six earned runs in his last outing. We are getting the Braves at a pretty good number and I am going to take Atlanta to get the win in Game 2. 

David’s Pick Game 1: Over 8.5 Game 2: Braves ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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