Twins vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 8/11/23

Philadelphia Phillies (64-52) vs Minnesota Twins (60-57)

Game Info: Friday, August 11, 2023 at 7:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Cristopher Sanchez (0-3) (3.44) vs Dallas Keuchel (0-0) (1.80)

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -160 / Minnesota Twins +147 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Minnesota Twins will play the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies took care of business against the lowly Nationals earlier this week, but they are nowhere close to the Braves in the AL East. Minnesota is coming off of a series loss, but they continue to lead the AL Central, as they are the only team above .500. 

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 60-57 this season and they have won five of their last eight games. Minnesota is coming off of a series loss to the Tigers, where they lost three out of four games. The Twins struggled offensively in the last three games of the series, getting shut out twice and only scoring five runs in the three losses. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average this year. The Twins offense has scored 515 runs with a .237 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Carlos Correa is batting .227 with 14 home runs and 53 RBI’s for the Twins. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Dallas Keuchel, who is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this season. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 64-52 this season and they have won five of their last six games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against Washington, where they won three out of four games. The Phillies got a no hitter from Michael Lorenzen on Wednesday and they only allowed two runs in the final two games of the series. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 536 runs with a .255 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Nick Castellanos is batting .276 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 0-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 52.1 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won each of their last seven home games against American League opponents following a home win.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last four games against AL Central opponents.

Minnesota Twins Team Facts

  • The Twins have lost eight of their last nine road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Twins have failed to cover the run line each of their last five games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Twins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six Friday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last five night games against National League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 5th in the league for walks allowed this season (329).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 6th in the league for doubles this season (213).
  • The Minnesota Twins ranks 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (314).
  • The Minnesota Twins ranks 5th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.236).

Pick

The Twins are lucky to be in the AL Central, as they are the only team above .500 currently. The Phillies are 12 games above .500, yet they are 9.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East. Philadelphia is playing very well right now and they are 33-22 at home. The Phillies are starting Cristopher Sanchez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Twins are starting Dallas Keuchel, who allowed one earned run over 5.0 innings of work against Arizona in his first start. Even though Keuchel only allowed one earned run, he still allowed eight hits and I think this Phillies lineup will do even more damage. Take the Phillies -1.5 here. 

David’s Pick Phillies -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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