Reds vs Pirates Prediction - MLB Picks 8/11/23

Pittsburgh Pirates (52-63) vs Cincinnati Reds (60-57)

Game Info: Friday, August 11, 2023 at 7:05 pm (PNC Park)

Johan Oviedo (6-11) (4.18) vs Andrew Abbott (6-3) (2.93)

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +102 / Cincinnati Reds -122 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Cincinnati Reds will play the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Pirates are fourth in the NL Central, but they have played decently well over the last few weeks. Cincinnati is third in the NL Central and only 2.5 games out of first place, but they have completely fallen apart over the last two weeks. 

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 60-57 this season and they have lost eight of their last nine games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss to the Marlins, where they lost two out of three games at home. The Reds pitching staff has been a disaster in recent games and the bullpen blew a 4-1 lead late in Game 3 against Miami. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.83 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a .261 opponent batting average this season. The Reds offense has scored 564 runs with a .250 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. TJ Friedl is batting .281 with 10 home runs and 45 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 70.2 innings pitched this year. 

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 52-63 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series split with the Braves, where they won two games and lost two games. The Pirates played well in the series against Atlanta and scored 25 runs in the four games. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.55 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a .254 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 482 runs with a .237 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this year. Jack Suwinski is batting .212 with 21 home runs and 53 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Johan Oviedo, who is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 131.1 innings pitched this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The home team has won each of the last six games between the Reds and Pirates.
  • The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
  • The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against the Reds at PNC Park.
  • The Pirates have led after 5 innings in five of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The Pirates have led after 7 innings in each of their last seven night games against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have lost each of their last seven games at PNC Park.
  • The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites following a loss.
  • The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games as road favorites.
  • The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven games at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit a home run in each of the Pirates' last two night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances at PNC Park.
  • Jack Suwinski has scored a run in eight of the Pirates' last nine home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded two or more hits in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded three or more total bases in five of his last six appearances at PNC Park against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Johan Oviedo has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • Joey Votto has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances with the Reds as road favorites.
  • Spencer Steer has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Reds' last seven road games.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded three or more total bases in each of his last four appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
  • Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in each of the Reds' last six night games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 25th in the league for RBI's this season (461).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 25th in the league for batting average this season (.237).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (164).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 27th in the league for walks allowed this season (434).

Pick

The Reds come into this game as a small favorite, but they have not played very good baseball over the last ten games. Cincinnati desperately needs a series win here, but the Pirates are playing well and just gave the Braves all they could handle. Pittsburgh is starting Johan Oviedo, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three straight starts. Cincinnati is starting Andrew Abbott, who has allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts (9 IP). Abbott has been roughed up in his last two starts and faces a Pittsburgh team that is hitting the ball very well. I think we are going to see plenty of runs in this game and I like the over. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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