Braves vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 8/11/23

New York Mets (52-62) vs Atlanta Braves (72-41)

Game Info: Friday, August 11, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Tylor Megill (6-5) (5.45) vs Charlie Morton (10-10) (3.86)

Betting Odds: New York Mets +155 / Atlanta Braves -169 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets face off on Friday in an MLB showdown at Citi Field in Queens. 

Braves Struggling a Bit

The Braves are still one of the best teams in baseball, but they have been struggling a bit as of late. The Braves have lost four of the last six games and on Thursday the pitching really struggled. They gave up seven runs and that led to the two run defeat. The Braves are averaging 5.69 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.26 runs per game. The offense is ranked second in the league while the defense is ranked 10th. Matt Olson has hit 40 home runs and driven in 101 RBIs. 

Braves Betting Trends

  • The Braves have won each of their last seven night games against NL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last five night games against NL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 7 innings in five of their last six games as favorites.

What Megill are we going to get? 

On the mound for the Mets will be Tylor Megill and the big question is what Megill are going to get here. In the last start against the Baltimore Orioles, Megill went 4.2 innings giving up nine hits and five runs. Three starts ago he went six innings and gave up only run, and the Mets need the good Megill in this game. The Mets are averaging 4.36 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.58 runs per game. The offense is ranked 19th while the pitching is ranked 17th. Pete Alonso has hit 35 home runs and driven in 87 RBIs. 

Mets Betting Trends

  • The Mets have lost each of their last nine Friday games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last seven games as home underdogs.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last five games at Citi Field.
  • The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.

Braves and Mets Facts

  • The New York Mets ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (898).
  • The New York Mets ranks 23rd in the league for batting average this season (.237).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.499).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.342).

Shane’s Free Pick

Megill is coming off a start where he gave up five runs and he’s going to really struggle again in this game. The Braves offense is ranked 2nd in the league and they are going to have no issue running up the score against Megill here. The Mets aren’t going to have the offense to keep up and this will be an easy victory for the Braves. Back the Braves -1.5 to cash here. 

Shane’s Pick Braves -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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