Royals vs Red Sox Prediction - MLB Picks 8/10/23

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last three games as favorites against the Royals following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games following a home win.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 7 innings in four of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last six games against AL Central opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight games as favorites.

Kansas City Royals Team Facts

• The Royals have lost seven of their last eight games at Fenway Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Royals have covered the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Royals have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven Thursday road games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Royals' last five night games against AL East opponents.
• The Royals have lost the first inning in each of their last five Thursday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has hit at least one home run in three of his last four Thursday night appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against AL Central opponents at Fenway Park.
• Triston Casas has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• James Paxton has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances against AL Central opponents at Fenway Park.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (26) this season.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• MJ Melendez has hit at least one home run in three of the Royals' last four games as road underdogs.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last eight appearances.
• MJ Melendez has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Royals' last four games as road underdogs.
• MJ Melendez has scored at least one run in seven of the Royals' last eight games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• MJ Melendez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals' last 10 games against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Boston Red Sox are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Boston Red Sox ranks 5th in the league for hits this season (1017).
• The Kansas City Royals ranks 29th in the league for walks this season (287).
• The Kansas City Royals ranks 28th in the league for runs scored this season (454).

Pick

The Red Sox come into this matchup looking for the series win and they are very big favorites to get the job done. Kansas City continues to really struggle on the road this season, as they are 16-43 away from Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are starting Alec Marsh, who has allowed 12 earned runs over his last 13 innings of work. The Red Sox are starting James Paxton, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. Marsh has really struggled for the Royals in recent outings, but Paxton has been serviceable. I think Paxton will do enough to keep this game low scoring, so I am taking the under.