Cubs vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 8/9/23

New York Mets (51-62) vs Chicago Cubs (59-55)

Game Info: Wednesday, August 9, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

David Peterson (3-7) (5.65) vs Kyle Hendricks (4-6) (3.98)

Betting Odds: New York Mets +100 / Chicago Cubs -120 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Chicago Cubs will play the New York Mets in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday night at Citi Field in New York. The Mets won the first game in this series by a score of 11-2 on Monday, but the Cubs answered back with a 3-2 win on Tuesday night. Chicago is right in the middle of the NL Central race, while New York is fourth in the NL East. 

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 59-55 this season and they have won six of their last eight games. Chicago came into this series off of a very impressive series win against the Braves, where they won two out of three games. The Cubs haven’t hit the ball particularly well in this series, but they are one of the hottest hitting teams over the last few weeks. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 579 runs with a .257 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Dansby Swanson is batting .259 with 17 home runs and 55 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Kyle Hendricks, who is 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 81.1 innings pitched this season.

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 51-62 this season and they have lost seven of their last eight games. New York has been an absolute disaster recently and they have been swept in their last two series by Baltimore and Kansas City. The New York pitching staff has a 4.38 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .249 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 493 runs with a .237 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso is batting .226 with 34 home runs and 85 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 65.1 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a loss.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs following a loss.
  • The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four games as home underdogs.
  • The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games as home underdogs.
  • The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The Cubs have won each of their last seven games against the Mets following a road win.
  • The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against the Mets following a road win.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last six road games against National League opponents.
  • The Cubs have lost the first inning in each of their last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Pete Alonso has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets' last four games against the Cubs at Citi Field.
  • Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets' last four home games against the Cubs.
  • Pete Alonso has recorded four or more total bases in each of the Mets' last four games against the Cubs at Citi Field.
  • Pete Alonso has scored at least one run in each of the Mets' last four games against the Cubs at Citi Field.
  • Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last six games as underdogs against the Cubs.
  • Pete Alonso ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.526) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Patrick Wisdom has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Cubs as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • Yan Gomes has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances with the Cubs as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last eight appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Hendricks has recorded four or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances in night games.
  • Nico Hoerner has scored at least one run in six of the Cubs' last seven games as favorites.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs' last 14 games as favorites against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The New York Mets ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (888).
  • The New York Mets ranks 24th in the league for batting average this season (.237).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.334).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 5th in the league for runs scored this season (579).

Pick

The Cubs were able to bounce back with a win in Game 2 on Tuesday and they need to take advantage of a reeling Mets team. Chicago has been one of the best teams in the MLB since the All-Star break and they are .500 on the road. The Cubs are starting Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed 12 earned runs over his last three starts (17.1 IP). New York is starting David Peterson, who has allowed no earned runs over his last eight innings of work, most of which has came out of the bullpen. I am going to side with the Cubs in this game, as I do not like what I have seen from the Mets over the last two weeks. 

David’s Pick Cubs ML

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