Cubs vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 8/7/23

New York Mets (50-61) vs Chicago Cubs (58-54)

Game Info: Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Kodai Senga (7-6) (3.25) vs Drew Smyly (8-7) (4.71)

Betting Odds: New York Mets -130 / Chicago Cubs +110 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Chicago Cubs will play the New York Mets in Game 1 of their series on Monday night at Citi Field in New York. The Cubs are coming off of a very impressive series win against Atlanta and they continue to move up in the NL Central standings. On the other side, New York has completely fallen apart and is looking towards next year.

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 58-54 this season and they have won five of their last six games. Chicago is coming off of a series win against the Braves, where they won two out of three games. The Cubs offense has been red hot lately, scoring six runs or more in four of their last six games. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 574 runs with a .257 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner is batting .272 with eight home runs and 58 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Drew Smyly, who is 8-7 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 112.2 innings pitched this season.

Mets Preview

The New York Mets are 50-61 this season and they have lost six games in a row. New York is coming off of a series sweep against the Orioles, where they lost all three games. Prior to that, New York lost all three games in their series with the Royals. The Mets have scored eight runs in their last five games. The New York pitching staff has a 4.41 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .250 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 480 runs with a .236 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso is batting .220 with 31 home runs and 77 RBI’s for the Mets. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Kodai Senga, who is 7-6 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 110.2 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The home team has won each of the Mets' last seven games.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents following a road loss.
  • The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Mets have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five night games.

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won each of the Cubs' last four games at Citi Field.
  • The Cubs have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Mets.
  • The Cubs have lost the first inning in each of their last three road games.
  • The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Citi Field.
  • The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against the Mets at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Pete Alonso has recorded four or more total bases in each of the Mets' last three games as favourites against the Cubs.
  • Kodai Senga has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Mets as favourites against NL opponents.
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets' last six Monday night games.
  • Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in four of the Mets' last five games as favourites.
  • Pete Alonso has hit a home run in each of the Mets' last three games as favourites against the Cubs.
  • Starling Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine Monday appearances at Citi Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Cody Bellinger has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against the Mets.
  • Ian Happ has scored at least one run in each of his last six road appearances.
  • Drew Smyly has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded two hits in each of the Cubs' last six games against NL East opponents.
  • Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The New York Mets ranks 27th in the league for hits this season (864).
  • The New York Mets ranks 24th in the league for batting average this season (.236).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.334).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 5th in the league for RBI's this season (551).

Pick

Chicago comes into this game playing very well and they are coming off of a series win against the best team in baseball. New York limps into this matchup and they have not been very competitive in their last two series. New York is starting Kodai Senga, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Chicago is starting Drew Smyly, who has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. The Cubs have one of the hottest offenses in the MLB right now and while the Mets have struggled lately, I think they will get to Smyly here. I like the over in this game. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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