Royals vs Phillies Prediction - MLB Picks 8/4/23

Philadelphia Phillies (59-50) vs Kansas City Royals (35-75)

Game Info: Friday, August 4, 2023 at 7:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Aaron Nola (9-7) (4.43) vs Jordan Lyles (2-12) (6.15)

Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -245 / Kansas City Royals +200 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Kansas City Royals will play the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Royals have one of the worst records in all of baseball, but they are playing their best baseball of the season. Philadelphia is second in the NL East, but they have played inconsistently over the last couple of weeks. 

Royals Preview

The Kansas City Royals are 35-75 this season and they have won six games in a row. Kansas City is coming off of a series win against the Mets at home, where they won all three games by scores of 7-6, 4-0, and 9-2. The Royals also swept the Twins at home, which started the winning streak. The Kansas City pitching staff has a 5.14 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .262 opponent batting average this season. The Royals offense has scored 423 runs with a .238 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Bobby Witt is batting .269 with 19 home runs and 64 RBI’s for the Royals. The projected starting pitcher for Kansas City is Jordan Lyles, who is 2-12 with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 112.2 innings pitched this year. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 59-50 this season and they have won three of their last six games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against the Marlins, where they won three out of four games in Miami. The Phillies were able to add Michael Lorenzen at the trade deadline, which improves an already very solid pitching staff. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 489 runs with a .254 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this year. Nick Castellanos is batting .274 with 15 home runs and 63 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 9-7 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 138.0 innings pitched this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favourites following a road win.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as home favourites against AL Central opponents following a win.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last five home games.
  • The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last four home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as home favourites.

Kansas City Royals Team Facts

  • The Royals have lost each of their last 11 Friday night road games.
  • The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a home win.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Royals' last six Friday night games against National League opponents.
  • The Royals have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Citizens Bank Park.
  • The Royals have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of the Phillies' last three games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies' last five games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Schwarber has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight home appearances against AL Central opponents.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Phillies as favourites against AL Central opponents.
  • Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last six home games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Schwarber has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies' last six games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryson Stott ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.301) this season.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

  • Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals' last eight games against NL opponents.
  • Kyle Isbel has recorded three or more total bases in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a home run in two of the Royals' last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Royals' last seven games as underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Kyle Isbel has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances with the Royals as underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks T7th in the league for doubles this season (198).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 24th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1008).
  • The Kansas City Royals ranks 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.297).
  • The Kansas City Royals ranks 29th in the league for walks this season (271).

Pick

The Royals will bring their six game winning streak into this game and they have hit the ball very well during this winning streak. Kansas City has scored at least seven runs in four of their last six games. Philadelphia is coming off of a nice series win against the Marlins, which gave them sole possession of second place in the NL East. Kansas City is starting Jordan Lyles, who has allowed eight earned runs in his last 10 innings pitched. Philadelphia is starting Aaron Nola, who has allowed 5, 3, 2, and 4 earned runs in his last four starts. I have not been impressed by either of these starting pitchers in recent outings and I like how Kansas City has swung the bat during this winning streak. I am taking the Royals +1.5 here. 

David’s Pick Royals +1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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