Nationals vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 8/4/23

Cincinnati Reds (59-51) vs Washington Nationals (46-63)

Game Info: Friday, August 4, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Graham Ashcraft (6-7) (5.31) vs Patrick Corbin (7-11) (5.14)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -175 / Washington Nationals +135 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds face off on Friday in an MLB showdown at the Great American Ballpark. 

Corbin Continues to Struggle

Patrick Corbin has been awful all season, and after being a hyped-up pitcher early in his career, he has been nothing but a disappointment. On the season Corbin sits with a 7-11 record and an ERA of 5.07. In five starts this month, Corbin has given up six home runs. In his last start against the New York Mets he went 5.2 innings giving up six hits and four runs. If the Nationals want any chance to find success here, Corbin is going to have no issue here. The Nationals are averaging 4.29 runs while their pitching is giving up 5.15 runs per game.The pitching especially has been a struggle and is ranked 27th. 

Nationals Betting Trends

  • The underdogs have won each of the Nationals' last three games at Great American Ball Park.
  • The Nationals have covered the run line seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Nationals have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Great American Ball Park.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last four night games at Great American Ball Park.

Ashcraft Has Been Much Better

Graham Ashcraft has overall struggled for the Reds and he comes into this game with a 6-7 record and an ERA of 5.31. Even though he has struggled, he’s been pitching better as of late. Over his last six starts he has given up only seven runs total. If Ashcraft can continue this strong run, this is a game the Reds should have little issue winning. The Reds are averaging 4.92 runs while their pitching is giving up 5.07 runs per game. The pitching overall has been ranked 26th in the league. 

Reds Betting Trends

  • The Reds have won 14 of their last 15 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
  • The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four games between the Nationals and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
  • The Reds have led after 7 innings in each of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Nationals and Reds Facts

  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (415).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 27th in the league for runs allowed this season (563).
  • The Washington Nationals ranks 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (803).
  • The Washington Nationals ranks 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.273).

Shane’s Free Pick

Ashcraft has been so impressive heading into this game and he’s going to continue the success here. In his last start against the Dodgers he gave up zero runs and he’s going to lockdown here. Corbin has had his issues and he’s going to really struggle again in this game. The Reds are going to score seven or eight runs here total, and Ashcraft won’t give up more than one run. Back the Reds -1.5 to cash here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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