Phillies vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 8/3/23

Miami Marlins (58-51) vs Philadelphia Phillies (58-50)

Game Info: Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 12:10 pm (loanDepot park)

Johnny Cueto (0-2) (5.06) vs Michael Lorenzen (5-7) (3.58)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins +105 / Philadelphia Phillies -135 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins will conclude their divisional series this Thursday from IoanDepot park. Miami pulled off a dramatic, walkoff win in game three, 9-8.

Phillies Preview & Projected Starter

Philadelphia moved to 56-48 following the loss to Miami. The Phillies couldn’t off an upgraded Marlins lineup, and they’ll look to avoid drawing the series here. The Philly offense is scoring 4.13 runs per game, while batting .254, with a .322 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 3.98 ERA, with a 1.25 WHIP.

Michael Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58 ERA, 83 Ks) will get the call for Philadelphia. The ninth-year righty will make his debut for the Phillies here in game four. Lorenzen earned his first All-Star nod with Detroit this season, and he’s been sharp since the break, tossing two shutout outings in Seattle and Kansas City, before tying a season-high seven strikeouts against the Angels in his final start with the Tigers.

Phillies Player Trends & Props

• Alex Bohm plated three runs in last night’s loss, and he leads Philly in RBI (69), while hitting .293.

• Nick Castellanos came through with a big ninth-inning homer to power the game two victory, and he’s posting strong splits of .274/15/63.

• Bryson Stott collected three hits in yesterday’s contest, and he’s posting team-leads in batting (.303) and hits (121).

• Kyle Schwarber has been quiet in South Beach, but he’s still among league leaders in homers (27), while second on the Phils with 65 RBI.

• Bryce Harper has recorded a hit in nine of the last ten contests, and he’s batting .291, with 31 RBI through 75 games.

Marlins Preview & Projected Starter

Miami moved to 58-51 after defeating Philadelphia. The Marlins showed a lot of resilience in last night’s extra-inning victory, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into Thursday afternoon. Miami offense is scoring 4.02 runs per game, while batting .260, with a .321 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.10 ERA, with a 1.27 WHIP.

Johnny Cueto (0-2, 5.06 ERA, 14 Ks) will take the mound for Miami. The veteran pitcher managed to go six innings against Detroit last week, but he took the loss after allowing four runs. Cueto’s been solid through three starts in the second portion of the season, and he’ll look to hold a spot within the rotation for the remainder of the season.

Marlins Player Trends & Props

• Luis Arraez has multiple hits in seven of the last ten games, and he’s leading the majors in batting (.378) and hits (153), with 51 RBI.

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. brings a ten-game hit streak into this matchup, and after homering last night, he’s posting splits of .244/10/22 through 47 games.

• Jon Berti doubled and plated a pair of runs in the game three win, and he’s batting a career-best .295.

• Josh Bell provided a spark with a solo shot and an extra-inning RBI in his first game as a Marlin last night.

• Jorge Soler tied things up with a ninth-inning bomb, and he leads Miami in home runs (26) and RBI (57).

• Bryan De La Cruz is second on the team in both categories with fourteen homers and 57 runs batted in.

Corey’s Free Pick

Miami came through for us in what was safely one of the best games of the 2023 season, but the glory may turn sour quickly here in the series finale. Philly threw the punches last night, and if they have their way with an elder Johnny Cueto, the Marlins won’t have the benefit of extras. Michael Lorenzen has looked good post-AS break, and if his game-managing ways transfer well, the Phillies could strike revenge here. Still to note, after last night neither bullpen can be trusted, so the Over may be a better play again here, especially with Philly in the final leg of a seven-game road trip.