Reds vs Cubs Prediction - MLB Picks 8/2/23

Chicago Cubs (54-53) vs Cincinnati Reds (59-50)

Game Info: Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 8:05 pm (Wrigley Field)

Drew Smyly (8-7) (4.50) vs Brandon Williamson (3-2) (4.48)

Betting Odds: Chicago Cubs -135 / Cincinnati Reds +114 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Cincinnati Reds will play the Chicago Cubs in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday night at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Cincinnati won the first game in this series by a score of 6-5 on Monday, but the Cubs erupted for 20 runs in their 20-9 win in Game 2 on Tuesday. These two teams are in the race for the NL Central, with the Reds currently leading. 

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 59-50 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Prior to this series, Cincinnati had a very nice series win against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Reds have played very well over the last month against everybody not named the Brewers. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.77 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a .261 opponent batting average this season. The Reds offense has scored 535 runs with a .253 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Spencer Steer is batting .273 with 15 home runs and 59 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Brandon Williamson, who is 3-2 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 64.1 innings pitched this year. 

Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 54-53 this season and they have won nine of their last eleven games. Chicago has played very well over their last 11 games and their offense has been very solid. The Cubs have scored at least five runs in eight of their last ten games. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this year. The Cubs offense has scored 539 runs with a .256 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner is batting .279 with eight home runs and 58 RBI’s for the Cubs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Drew Smyly, who is 8-7 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 108.0 innings pitched this season. 

Chicago Cubs Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field.
  • The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last five night games following a win.
  • The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last nine games as home favourites against National League opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

  • The Reds have won each of their last seven games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight games following a road loss.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Drew Smyly has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
  • Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Cubs' last four games against NL Central opponents at Wrigley Field.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded two or more total bases in eight of his last nine appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Cody Bellinger has scored at least one run in 15 of his last 16 appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Dansby Swanson has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • Spencer Steer has recorded an RBI in four of the Reds' last five road games against NL opponents.
  • Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Spencer Steer has scored at least one run in each of his last six road appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
  • Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds' last nine games against NL opponents.
  • Nick Senzel has recorded at least one hit in each of his six previous appearances at Wrigley Field against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 3rd in the league for home runs allowed this season (112).
  • The Chicago Cubs ranks 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.334).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (407).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 4th in the league for walks this season (382).

Pick

The Cubs had an amazing day at the plate on Tuesday, as they scored 20 runs on 21 hits. Cincinnati has had a very good season so far, but their pitching staff is ranked 26th in team ERA. Both teams have played well recently and this should be a great game. Cincinnati is starting Brandon Williamson, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Chicago is starting Drew Smyly, who has allowed 1, 4, 5, and 4 earned runs over his last four starts. I think the pitching matchup favors the Reds and I am going to take them with plus money here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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